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$BTC/USD (BTCUSD.CC)$ Bitcoin multi-cycle technical review a...
$BTC/USD (BTCUSD.CC)$ Bitcoin multi-cycle technical review and analysis (with the impact of Trump's victory)
Bitcoin broke through the $0.1 million mark this week before falling back. In the short term, daily fluctuations may revolve around the $0.1 million range, while the target for the weekly rebound could rise further to $0.124 million. At the same time, Trump's re-election may have a potential impact on the bitcoin market. Here is a detailed analysis and recommendation:
The impact of Trump's victory on bitcoin
• Macro Environment:
• Trump's policy tends to focus on tax cuts and deregulation, which is generally seen as bullish for risk assets, including bitcoin.
• During his term, Trump has a strong tendency to intervene in Fed policies, which may affect the strength of the US dollar. If the loose policy continues, the expectation of dollar depreciation will further boost the price of bitcoin.
• Market Sentiment:
• Trump has criticized bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, believing that they may affect the status of the dollar. However, his economic policies indirectly favor the adoption of cryptocurrencies.
• Investors may see Trump's re-election as a driving factor for high-risk assets such as US stocks and bitcoin, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment in the short term.
Technical analysis: multi-period assessment
1. Daily analysis
• Trend and Pattern: Currently, bitcoin is consolidating around $100,000, with $104,000 forming a phase resistance, while $98,500 becomes a short-term support, indicating a clear range of volatility.
• Technical signals:
• RSI: at a high level, showing some overbought signals, but no obvious divergence.
• MACD: the momentum bar is shrinking, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum.
• Conclusion: It is expected to mainly consolidate with oscillations until the resistance range of 0.1015 million is not broken through.
2. Weekly Analysis
• Medium-term goal: Last week's breakthrough has created conditions for further upward movement to $0.124 million, the current channel remains intact.
• Technical analysis: The weekly uptrend momentum is strong, but approaching the resistance zone, the risk of a pullback is gradually increasing.
• Key support: If there is a pullback, the key support level is $95,000 below, holding this level will keep the overall upward trend unchanged.
3. Short-term analysis
• 4-hour timeframe:
• Dynamic observation: Currently oscillating in a descending triangle area, with the potential to break out.
• Short-term support: Pay attention to the performance of the $98,000 support, if broken, it will enter a deeper correction.
• 1-hour timeframe:
• Dynamic signal: presenting a bullish flag pattern, may form a short-term rebound to around $1082-1114 million, but it is necessary to observe the volume support.
Strategy Recommendation
1. Short-term strategy:
• After breaking $1015 million, pay attention to the resistance range of $0.102 million to $0.105 million.
• If it falls below $98,000, it may enter a deeper correction, so it is necessary to avoid risks in a timely manner.
2. Medium-term strategy:
• The weekly rebound target is $0.124 million, and it is recommended to gradually increase positions based on breakthrough signals.
• If the price adjusts to around $95,000 and stabilizes, it will provide an opportunity for mid-term long positions.
Bitcoin broke through the $0.1 million mark this week before falling back. In the short term, daily fluctuations may revolve around the $0.1 million range, while the target for the weekly rebound could rise further to $0.124 million. At the same time, Trump's re-election may have a potential impact on the bitcoin market. Here is a detailed analysis and recommendation:
The impact of Trump's victory on bitcoin
• Macro Environment:
• Trump's policy tends to focus on tax cuts and deregulation, which is generally seen as bullish for risk assets, including bitcoin.
• During his term, Trump has a strong tendency to intervene in Fed policies, which may affect the strength of the US dollar. If the loose policy continues, the expectation of dollar depreciation will further boost the price of bitcoin.
• Market Sentiment:
• Trump has criticized bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, believing that they may affect the status of the dollar. However, his economic policies indirectly favor the adoption of cryptocurrencies.
• Investors may see Trump's re-election as a driving factor for high-risk assets such as US stocks and bitcoin, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment in the short term.
Technical analysis: multi-period assessment
1. Daily analysis
• Trend and Pattern: Currently, bitcoin is consolidating around $100,000, with $104,000 forming a phase resistance, while $98,500 becomes a short-term support, indicating a clear range of volatility.
• Technical signals:
• RSI: at a high level, showing some overbought signals, but no obvious divergence.
• MACD: the momentum bar is shrinking, indicating a weakening of short-term bullish momentum.
• Conclusion: It is expected to mainly consolidate with oscillations until the resistance range of 0.1015 million is not broken through.
2. Weekly Analysis
• Medium-term goal: Last week's breakthrough has created conditions for further upward movement to $0.124 million, the current channel remains intact.
• Technical analysis: The weekly uptrend momentum is strong, but approaching the resistance zone, the risk of a pullback is gradually increasing.
• Key support: If there is a pullback, the key support level is $95,000 below, holding this level will keep the overall upward trend unchanged.
3. Short-term analysis
• 4-hour timeframe:
• Dynamic observation: Currently oscillating in a descending triangle area, with the potential to break out.
• Short-term support: Pay attention to the performance of the $98,000 support, if broken, it will enter a deeper correction.
• 1-hour timeframe:
• Dynamic signal: presenting a bullish flag pattern, may form a short-term rebound to around $1082-1114 million, but it is necessary to observe the volume support.
Strategy Recommendation
1. Short-term strategy:
• After breaking $1015 million, pay attention to the resistance range of $0.102 million to $0.105 million.
• If it falls below $98,000, it may enter a deeper correction, so it is necessary to avoid risks in a timely manner.
2. Medium-term strategy:
• The weekly rebound target is $0.124 million, and it is recommended to gradually increase positions based on breakthrough signals.
• If the price adjusts to around $95,000 and stabilizes, it will provide an opportunity for mid-term long positions.
Summary
Bitcoin is currently still in a bullish trend, with short-term highs oscillating. Trump's re-election may drive up market risk appetite, but caution is needed regarding the uncertainty in policy implementation. Combine multi-period technical signals for dynamic adjustments to reduce uncertainty.
免责申明
The above analysis is for learning and reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets are highly uncertain, and investment decisions should be made based on individual risk tolerance and market conditions. Neither myself nor the content provider shall be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the above content. Investment carries risks, so caution is advised when entering the market.
Bitcoin is currently still in a bullish trend, with short-term highs oscillating. Trump's re-election may drive up market risk appetite, but caution is needed regarding the uncertainty in policy implementation. Combine multi-period technical signals for dynamic adjustments to reduce uncertainty.
免责申明
The above analysis is for learning and reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets are highly uncertain, and investment decisions should be made based on individual risk tolerance and market conditions. Neither myself nor the content provider shall be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the above content. Investment carries risks, so caution is advised when entering the market.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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