US bull market gains 65% in 2 years. It's not done yet. Watch these five factors
The US stock market celebrated its two-year bull-market anniversary, with the S&P500 up 65% from October 2022, hitting its 45th record high on Friday. In this article we explore what's supporting the bull market dance higher, why you have not missed the long-term boat, and the several key themes that you cannot ignore.
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So you might be asking yourself is it too late to invest. The answer is is no. The average bull market since World War II has been 5 years long and with S&P500 up 180%, with the median gain being 100%. And this time the US market is supported higher by several key factors.
From the US and China stimulating their economies, cutting interest rates. This is boosting liquidity (money) flowing through flow through the system. US company earnings are growing and that’s expected to grow too, which is supporting share price growth. There’s a record amount of money on the side lines, about US$6.2 trillion. Some of that come into markets after the November US election. So yes, the bull market could have a lot more room to run.
So what’s done well over two years?
So the US market's gained 65% with four themes standing out and in focus.
The semiconductor sector is up the most 261%. So why are Semiconductors up by over 200%? Well it’s because of stocks in the sector have reported the most earning growth. Stocks like Nvidia $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$. are up almost 700% in two years. Super Micro $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ is gained about 470%. They’ve been seeing the most earnings growth among large US companies, with revenue rising about 195% this year for Nvidia and 110% for SMCI.
Secondly – Uranium is shining. We’ve been speaking a lot about uranium doing well. Stocks like Vistra $Vistra Energy (VST.US)$ are up about 450% with Constellation Energy $Constellation Energy (CEG.US)$ up by a similar amount. It’s because big tech companies such as Microsoft $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$, Amazon $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ and Google $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ are increasingly asking to source uranium power directly from companies such as Constellation to keep their data-centres running 24-7 via uranium power, which is deemed cheaper and as a cleaner energy source.
Thirdly – defense stocks continued to hit new highs. Stocks such as General Electric $GE Aerospace (GE.US)$ are up 280% trading at record highs. GE does business under the name GE Aerospace and it makes 43% of its money selling defense engines for jets and also servicing them. It recently wone new US army contracts. And also was named as a top stock to watch by Deutsch Bank, with the bank seeing 20% upside
Fourth theme - is that China stimulus benefactors are upping their ante. With stocks like Royal Caribbean $Royal Caribbean (RCL.US)$ up almost 250% trading at record highs.
Similar themes are being reflected in what we're seeing clients buy on moomoo's platform. Last week we saw investors buying into Chip stocks, China’s come back, while we also saw investor buying into Tesla $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ ahead of Cybercab launch at the weekend.
The takeaways? We've spoken about the US market, and how it looks bullish still even after rising over 60% in two years. But Gold is catching up. It's up about 60% in almost two years. So while you might want to watch S&P500 ETFs like SPY $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ and IVV $iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV.US)$ You probably want to watch Gold ETFs like GDX $VanEck Gold Miners Equity ETF (GDX.US)$ and GLD $SPDR Gold ETF (GLD.US)$ that have followed the gold price up higher.
I think these trends could continue and are definitely worth watching.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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Moomoo Official Market Strategist
Investment strategist seen and heard on global media such as Fox News Business, ABC, SBS, Reuters wires.
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