"Buying elections" has a 90% success rate! What about after the election? Check out the "anomalies" of the past 10 House of Representatives elections! Will the stock prices go up if a stable government is formed?

It is said that "elections are a buy," but ahead of the House of Representatives election voting on the 27th, what should be the investment strategy for domestic stocks? The certainty of the "anomaly" surrounding the general election and how far it goes can be examined by analyzing the data from the past 10 House of Representatives elections.

If the anomaly of "elections are a buy" holds true, the Nikkei average should be 25,610 yen on the 25th.
In the past 10 House of Representatives elections,Comparing the closing prices of the dissolution date and the closing prices of the business day just before the voting day, the Nikkei average stock price has risen in 9 out of 10 times. When averaging the 10 rates of rise and fall, it is a 3.39% increase.out of the 10 times,The percentage of increase averaged 3.39%.
By the way, comparing the Nikkei average closing price on the day the House of Representatives was dissolved on the 9th (29927.96 yen) and the closing price on the 18th (29881.75 yen), it has decreased by 0.75%.Based on past anomalies, it is estimated that the Nikkei Stock Average will increase by 3.39% to around 250,000 yen on the 25th.To be.

"Buy after elections"? The win rate is fifty-fifty.
Conversely, after elections, the odds are slightly bad.After 1 month of elections, the Nikkei Stock Average has risen 4 times and fallen 6 times.。The simple average shows a 0.25% increase in stock prices.And.Looking at the election results 3 months later, there are 5 increases and 5 decreases equally. The simple average stock price has increased by 6.34%.It has become so.

Will the stock prices rise if the Liberal Democratic Party maintains a stable government?
Out of 10 times when the Liberal Democratic Party either maintained or gained power, the party reached a majority on its own 5 times. Out of these 5 times, the Nikkei average stock price increased after the election in 3 months in 4 instances.Out of 10 times when the Liberal Democratic Party either maintained or gained power, the party reached a majority on its own 5 times. Out of these 5 times, the Nikkei average stock price increased after the election in 3 months in 4 instances.is doing. Conversely,In the three elections where the LDP formed a coalition with other parties or reached a majority through additional endorsements, the stock prices dropped after each election.is doing. It can be said that if a stable government centered around the LDP is formed, there is a high possibility of the stock prices rising.

Comparing the situation in the early stages of the election with the coverage...
According to surveys conducted by various media outlets, it is generally considered that achieving a majority solely by the LDP at the beginning of the Lower House election this time is difficult, and it is uncertain whether they will reach a majority with the LDP-Komeito coalition.
As mentioned earlier, when the LDP reaches a majority through a coalition rather than solely, the stock prices have dropped in all three instances.
On the other hand,In the two elections where non-LDP parties took power, there was one win and one loss in terms of subsequent stock prices.It has happened. The Liberal Democratic Party has fallen into opposition for the first time.In 1994.In the House of Representatives election in 1994, a coalition government consisting of 8 party factions including the then Japan New Party was born.After the election, the approval ratings rose by around 2% one month later and three months later.I am doing.
In 2009.will announce the US June Consumer Price Index (CPI).After the Democratic Party scored a landslide victory and took power in the House of Representatives election in 2009, the stock prices plummeted significantly.It is being done. However,It increased by more than 9% before the election.It has the highest increase rate among the 10 times. At that time, the LDP was suffering from a low approval rating and was forced to dissolve due to the expiration of the term, and it is believed that the victory of the Democratic Party was to some extent factored in before the election.If the LDP-Komeito coalition does not reach a majority and a coalition government led by the Constitutional Democratic Party is formed, there is also a possibility that stock prices will rise.It seems that there is a possibility of stock prices rising as well.