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Buy sign on the Nikkei Average chart! are you going to buy it? There is also sales pressure from overseas players

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moomooニュース日本株 wrote a column · Oct 6, 2023 03:43
On the Nikkei Stock Average chart, Bloomberg reported on the 6th that a “knock-on” pattern in which a “window” (gap between candlesticks) in the direction of decline appears 3 times in a row has been established, and market participants have indicated the possibility of a shift to an upward market price. Knocking in three skies is one of the patterns of technical analysis “Sakata Five Laws,” which has been used since the Edo period, and is known as a buy sign.
According to Bloomberg, the windows opened on September 21, October 3, and 4 this time, and there are no consecutive business days when the first and second windows were opened. Toshinoda Masayuki, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities Research Institute, analyzed that it came into the shape of Miku as a result of searching for lower prices rather than panic sales. It is believed that there is a possibility that price range revisions will progress in the short term until the 200-day line level of 30,000 yen split depending on the movement of US stocks, but they are also talking about the possibility that a buying strategy may be effective.
▲The red arrow indicates the business day the window is open
▲The red arrow indicates the business day the window is open
The three-sky slam occurred even on 3 consecutive business days starting 3/10 this year. After that, it hit the bottom (low price 26,632 yen) on the 16th, and while rounding up the lower price, it rose to 6/19 (high price 33,772 yen).
There is also a reaction where this year's rise was rapid, and even while the performance of Japanese companies is currently strong, overseas sales momentum is strong due to deterioration in investor sentiment due to rising US interest rates. According to the trading situation by investment sector for the 9/4 week (25-29) announced by the Japan Exchange Group (JPX) on the 5th, overseas investors oversold Japanese stocks by over 1.62 trillion yen in total in spot and futures. Spot stocks will be oversold for 4 consecutive weeks.
Takebe, a Japanese stock strategist at Goldman Sachs Securities, said, “There are no factors unique to Japan that would change the story. There are many questions about why Japanese stocks are falling” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun dated 4th). The environment in the Japanese stock market is not bad, such as the Bank of Japan maintaining monetary easing and the depreciation of the yen. In the market, there seems to be a view that they are not investors with a long-term perspective, and that they sell Japanese stocks along with US stocks using materials originating in the US, mainly short-term funds, etc.
Also, there is some concern that the balance of margin trading purchases (at the time of application on 9/29) is 3,872.2 billion yen, which is the first high level in 16 years and 2 months since 2007/8, but in response to an interview by Bloomberg, Chief Equity Market Analyst Suzuki Seiichi of the Tokai Tokyo Research Center said that in the current situation where the total market value of Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime has swelled to about 800 trillion yen, the degree of impact on the overall market “nominal credit purchase balance is less than 0.5%” It shows recognition that it is declining.
However, since “four skies” also occurred during the 2020/2/3 period of the coronavirus shock, it seems necessary to buy based on the further decline.
Source: Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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