Can Bitcoin Break $100K After Its Pullback?
Last Friday, Bitcoin briefly surged to $99,800, just a step away from the psychological $100K milestone. Watching the market closely, I was convinced the U.S. market’s opening would push it over the top. Instead, $99,800 was the recent peak, and this week started with a sharp decline.
I’ve been exploring various opinions on why Bitcoin has dropped, when it might break $100K, how high this bull market could go, and potential strategies. Here’s a quick breakdown of my thoughts:
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1. Why Has Bitcoin Declined Recently?
I see two key reasons for the recent drop:
1. Excessive leverage in the market: When volatility increases, leveraged positions are often force-liquidated, causing additional downward pressure on prices.
2. Shaking out weak hands: Retail investors who entered at the top are being forced out during this consolidation phase, setting the stage for a stronger rally later.
Despite the decline, I’m not too worried. In a bull market, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below the short-term holder cost basis of $76,000. Moreover, several data points suggest BTC has room to climb.
As of November 25, 54,600 Bitcoins were sold at a loss. Panic buying and selling are common in financial markets. After a 40%+ surge in under two weeks post-November 6, many latecomers entered at inflated prices, only to be shaken out during volatility. This fear-induced selling has added to downward pressure.
Historically, such pullbacks are common for Bitcoin during bull runs. Near key price levels, profit-taking intensifies, and bulls and bears engage in fierce battles. Leverage-driven speculation often gets flushed out, but in the mid- to long-term, Bitcoin typically resumes its uptrend.
From a sentiment perspective, the MVRV ratio for long-term holders suggests Bitcoin’s market sentiment has warmed but hasn’t reached euphoric extremes. This indicates substantial upside potential as market sentiment continues to improve.
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2. Can Bitcoin Break $100K?
In my view, breaking $100K is only a matter of time.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is currently in its fourth-wave consolidation phase. Once this phase concludes, it’s likely to begin the fifth wave of its rally.
The key question is how long the fourth wave will last. Currently, Bitcoin hasn’t tested its lower support levels, so further declines remain possible. If you want to go long, consider entering below $90K to position for the fifth wave.
As for when Bitcoin might break $100K, I believe it won’t happen before December. The fourth wave’s consolidation still has some time to play out. We’ll need to see two structural lows—a primary low and a secondary, higher low—before the next upward phase begins.
Patience is key here.
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3. What’s Next After $100K?
Reaching $100K will mark a small climax for this bull market, paving the way for higher price targets.
Market recognition largely supports Bitcoin’s price. The $100K milestone will confirm strong institutional and retail participation.
At this pivotal point, the Matthew Effect will kick in, attracting more hesitant retail investors and sidelined institutions. Combined with a high likelihood of further Fed rate cuts, these dual tailwinds could propel Bitcoin into the second stage of its bull market, potentially targeting $130K.
However, expect some turbulence around $100K. Mt. Gox is likely to continue selling Bitcoin to repay creditors. These large-scale sell-offs could cause short-term volatility, shaking out weaker hands who entered at higher levels.
Still, there’s reason for optimism. The U.S. has signaled plans to purchase Bitcoin on a large scale. Reports suggest 32,000 BTC were transferred from Mt. Gox on November 5 and 19, but Bitcoin’s price didn’t falter.
Instead, it continued rising, indicating strong demand from large buyers who absorbed the selling pressure.
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4. Strategy Suggestions
To summarize:
1. Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase and may need two rounds of structural corrections. Key support lies around $88K.
2. In a bull market, Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $76K, the short-term holder cost basis.
3. After consolidation, the fifth wave is expected, likely breaking $100K.
4. 100K marks the first phase of the bull market. Expect minor turbulence before entering the second phase, with potential targets around 130K.
Strategy:
- Wait for further corrections. If BTC drops below $90K, it’s a good entry point.
- If BTC consolidates between $88K and $92K or dips below $88K, consider dollar-cost averaging to build your position. This phase might be tough to endure, but it’s essential to hold on and not get shaken out.
- If holding feels too stressful, you can hedge with a bearish ETF, which will profit if BTC drops.
- Once BTC reaches $100K, consider taking partial profits but hold some for potential upside beyond $100K.
- If prices drop back below $95K, continue dollar-cost averaging.
Once Bitcoin returns to $100K and climbs to $110K, $120K, and $130K, it gradually takes profits. Of course, if you foresee even higher prices, you can continue holding your core position.
For those preferring indirect exposure, $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ offers a compelling opportunity.
As of November 25, MSTR added 55,500 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 386,700 BTC.
Simply put, MSTR is the largest corporate holder of BTC, and as BTC prices rise, MSTR’s stock price rises accordingly.
More deeply, MSTR operates like leveraging Wall Street to mine BTC. It continuously issues debt to purchase BTC, diluting shares to increase BTC holdings per share. For investors, buying MSTR stock is akin to indirectly holding BTC while benefiting from the leveraged gains driven by BTC's price increases.
BTC’s 45% surge since November 5 drove MSTR’s stock up 78.16%. If you want safe, leveraged Bitcoin exposure without the risk of liquidation, MSTR is a solid pick.
📊 Time to Vote: When Will Bitcoin Break $100K?
Bitcoin is nearing all-time highs, and the market is buzzing!
Are you a short-term bull or a patient long-term investor? 🎯
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This concludes my thoughts on Bitcoin’s outlook. Feel free to share your opinions in the comments, and I hope this article helps Mooers make informed decisions!
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This concludes my thoughts on Bitcoin’s outlook. Feel free to share your opinions in the comments, and I hope this article helps Mooers make informed decisions!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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TA fan | People overreact all the time and the chart helps us make use of that
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