Chart Talks - Robotaxi Event countdown: Market jolt or merely a joke.
Tesla unveiled the Cybercab and RoboVan on Robotaxi Day. They were flashy and aesthetic. But they would be useless if they don't function as intended. They are not new concepts.
Waymo, Cruise, Apollo Go, WeRide and a few others have robotaxis for a few years already.
How does Tesla Robotaxi compare against Waymo and Cruise?
The Cybercab is using neural net and cameras only. It can drive anywhere and at a faster speed. The distance between human interventions is about 13 miles. Without interventions, they would have crashed.
Waymo and Cruise are using HD maps, are geo-fenced and drive at slower speeds. They use Lidars, sensors and cameras. The distance between interventions is more than 10,000 miles. They are much safer.
Which is the best solution? The answer is none. There is only a better solution. The different systems have their own disadvantages. But the most important factor is safety. Waymo and Cruise have redundant safety systems in Lidars, sensors and cameras. If one system fails, other systems can be used as backup. Whereas, there's no backup if Tesla's cameras fail. Also, there are more than a dozen cases of Tesla EVs crashing into parked emergency vehicles. Apparently, Tesla's cameras are confused by flashing lights. Cameras also don't work well in bad weather.
Tesla's Autopilot should have detected the emergency vehicles and braked. But they didn't. Lidar would have detected and avoided the accidents.
So the better solution, with safety as the primary factor, is Lidar. The Lidar camp comprising Waymo, Cruise, Apollo Go, etc are increasing their coverage and speed.
No state would issue licence for testing robotaxi if it fails safety standards. Tesla wouldn't get one with its 13 miles between interventions. It had no steering wheel and pedal. There would be no way to intervene if it was going to crash.
Tesla's new Robovan has a Chinese counterpart with the same name. WeRide already had its Robovan back in 2021.
WeRide, a Chinese autonomous driving startup, unveiled its own self-driving cargo van in 2021. WeRide named its product the Robovan, and the company's CEO, Tony Han, touted it as being at the intersection of a passenger and logistics vehicle.
"It's an autonomous driving vehicle. If you put a seat there it can serve as a robotaxi car. If you put a cabinet there it is really a logistics car," Han told CNBC in 2021.
"Why don't we do both?" Han added.
In May, WeRide said it obtained a license to conduct road tests for the vehicle in Guangzhou, China. On its website, WeRide said it had received "over 10,000 indication orders from a leading express delivery company" for the car.
The WeRide Robovan or Robobus is the pinnacle of WeRide's technological innovation. It's the world's first L4 autonomous minibus designed for open urban roads and the first to achieve large-scale commercial application as well.
Built on WeRide's advanced autonomous driving hardware and software architecture, the vehicle features in multiple capabilities such as 360-degree perception without blind spots, has a 200-metre range of obstacle detection, a top speed of 40km/h and combining safety with comfort, etc. It fulfills the criteria for zero emissions, low noise, and high-frequency commercial operations.
Currently, WeRide Robobus has conducted road testing and operations in nearly 30 cities, including Guangzhou, Beijing, Wuxi, Nanjing, Singapore, and Abu Dhabi. On Dec 30, 2023, it officially launched the first commercial autonomous driving minibus service in Guangzhou, China, the first BRT line, and the first nighttime autonomous driving minibus service.
Technical analysis
Some people said that Tesla is looking bullish as below.
It may be forming a cup with handle pattern and then break out. Well, it didn't turn out that way.
Will there be fast charging? What are the specifications? What are the business plans? How is Tesla going to improve to 10,000 miles between interventions? There were too many unanswered questions from the Robotaxi event and investors were disappointed. With no affordable Model 2 unveiled, deliveries may fall in 2025 and 2026 before the mass production of the Cybercab. The stock was sold down. The chart of what actually happened is shown below.
A bearish double top pattern appears to be forming with the peaks around 270. Also it is bearish in the long term as it got rejected at the downtrend line. It may fall to supports around 182 or the uptrend line.
The Cybercab looks like a joke to me.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Moo Contributor
Follow me to get useful analysis, learn TA and make profitable trades.
Maximise profit 利润最大化
7931Followers
46Following
26KVisitors
Follow
bullrider_21 OP : The Cybercab only has 2 seats. As a robotaxi, it should carry more passengers.
73162089 : In most countries, L4 full autonomous driving is illegal as of today.
73162089 : It is still long way to make it realistic on public roads, ten years minimum.
74523441 73162089 : that is hilarious..... good luck with those predictions...try 6 or less.
74523441 : lol. It's October leading into election... everything else is static and noise...
Tonyco : I'm glad to see some people holding Tesla to account for this empty announcement. they've been failing for some time now..
I've been saying it for a while, Tesla is grossly overvalued.. no new offerings except gimmicks and no plan for improved cars.
People in the USA still have an average of 25MPG FFS. We can fuck around with automatic driving once the people here catch up to China....
Hyundai, VW, and Nissan are way better plays than Tesla for the next 5 yrs
bullrider_21 OP Tonyco : Well said.
bullrider_21 OP 73162089 : Waymo, Cruise, Apollo Go are now L4. They are moving towards L5. Tesla, if successful, will be L5 as it will be operating in all areas without conditions. But it's still some way off.