Kimihiko commented on a stock · Dec 15 13:36

I asked ChatGPT o1 for a Candlestick analysis of NVIDIA $NVDA's chart.

However, I have very little knowledge about candlestick chart analysis... If the response from ChatGPT this time was correct, or if it would be better to improve the way the question was asked, I would be happy to receive advice.

🥺First Question: Please analyze the chart of NVIDIA for the past year. ChatGPT Response: Below is an example of technical analysis based on the stock price chart of NVIDIA (NVDA) over the past year (roughly from the end of last year to the end of this year). Actual price ranges and dates depend on the attached images or information at that time, but it summarizes the general movements and trends over a one-year span.

1. Overview of Price Movement: Over the past year, NVDA's stock has attracted market attention as an AI-related stock, experiencing significant upward trends. Especially from the first half to around summer of 2023, it skyrocketed due to expectations of growing AI generation and data center demand, doubling or more than doubling in price from the beginning of the year. After reaching a peak around August to September, it has transitioned to a phase of adjustment in a high price range.

2. Trend (Moving Average) Analysis: 50-Day Moving Average (Short to Medium Term Trend): Throughout the year, the stock price exhibited a strong upward trend above the 50-day moving average, particularly noticeable from spring to summer. After the peak, there were more instances of the stock price oscillating near the 50-day moving average, and towards the end, it has been seen breaking below the 50-day moving average, indicating a slowdown in the short-term bullish trend. 200-Day Moving Average (Long Term Trend): The 200-day moving average has maintained an upward trend even in the latter half of the year, suggesting continued long-term upward momentum. Despite a significant increase in stock price, the deviation from the 200-day moving average temporarily widened, but this gap is narrowing due to adjustments. It is believed that the long-term upward trend remains intact.

3. Volume Trends: Increased volume during the uptrend indicates heightened investor interest and participation, providing reliability to the upward movement. Signs of overheating were observed at the peak formation, leading to profit-taking sales and increased trading by short-term speculators in the high price range, resulting in increased volume. During the downward adjustment phase, the volume showed a slight decrease, hinting at a temporary retreat in buying interest.

4. Support & Resistance Lines: The high price range formed over the past year (such as in the late $400s to near $500, varying by period) serves as a psychological and technical resistance. On the other hand, the long-term moving averages and past consolidation levels (e.g., in the $200s to mid-$300s) are points that are often considered as support.

5. Oscillator Indicators such as RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) enters the 'overbought' zone of 70 or higher during sharp uptrends, then drops to 50 or lower during subsequent adjustment phases, indicating a dissipation of overheating. Recently, it has often fluctuated around 40-50, reflecting a phase of the market losing some direction and being 'neutral to slightly bearish'.

6. Market Environment and Relationship with Themes: NVIDIA is a central stock in the semiconductor sector for AI demand, making it susceptible to market sentiment. The previous rise till mid-year was driven by thematic factors (AI boom, expansion of datacenter demand) and strong financial results. However, currently, profit-taking from high levels and uncertainties around interest rates and the macro environment might be putting pressure on the stock price and causing adjustments.

7. Overall Evaluation: Over the past year, NVIDIA stock has entered a phase of profit-taking and adjustment after a strong uptrend, reaching high levels. The long-term trend remains upward, with the stock price hovering around the 200-day moving average. Considering the continuity of the growth story, there may be opportunities for dip-buying for medium to long-term investors. However, in the short term, further adjustments and price volatility may continue. If the stock price breaks above the 50-day moving average and indicators like RSI trend upwards from neutral levels, it could signal a return to an upward trend. Currently, there seems to be a cautious mood in the market.

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Additional Question: Using chart analysis only, please predict the stock price for the next 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year ahead.

ChatGPT Answer: Currently (around $134 according to the image), although the stock price appears to be in a short-term adjustment phase, it is still maintaining an upward trend as it is above the 200-day moving average (around $115). For the next approximately 1 month (short-term): - The stock price is expected to be searching for support after falling below the 50-day moving average (around $139-140). - RSI is slightly oversold around the low 40s, indicating potential for a short-term rebound.

- Looking ahead to 1 month, around $115 near the 200-day moving average may act as medium to long-term support, while around $140-145, the previous decline level, could function as resistance. - Prediction: In 1 month, the scenario could involve trading within the range of $130-145 after adjustments, with a slight rebound towards around $140.

For the next approximately 6 months (medium-term): - If the long-term upward trend (200-day moving average increase) is sustained, there is a possibility for a return to an upward trajectory after adjustments. - Over a span of 6 months, while the market may consolidate for a while, a recovery towards high levels (e.g., above $150) could be possible if market sentiment improves again. - Conversely, if further adjustments are made, there could be a scenario of a temporary drop towards $115 around the 200-day moving average, followed by a rebound. - Prediction: In the medium term, assuming a wide trading range of around $120-160, the likelihood of a recovery towards higher levels is high. For example, it may recover towards around $150 in about 6 months.

In the future about 1 year (long-term): ・ When considering 1 year ahead, there is a possibility that the 200-day moving average will continue to show a gentle rise, assuming that the long-term uptrend is being maintained. ・ Considering the strong historical upward trend, it is anticipated that in the long term, there may be a case of reaching new highs or returning to near those levels as long as the important support line (200-day moving average) is maintained. ・ In a year's time, it may not be a pipe dream to aim for around 180-200 dollars depending on the market environment. ・ Speculation: There is a possibility of gradually rising again and reaching a range of around 170-200 dollars in a year's time. ✣✣––––––––––––––✣✣

By the way, I also thought that NVIDIA's stock price would reach $190 within the next year. The demand for AI datacenters is strong, and in the financial estimates to be announced in 2025, it is expected to significantly exceed the performance that analysts are predicting.

I am looking forward to seeing if the predictions from ChatGPT o1 and myself come true 😊

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麦マル : Great prediction
NVIDIA shares are not suitable for short-term speculation or day trading
Someone I respect says
　　Flagship of future-oriented companies
is NVIDIA

AI, quantum computers, etc., cannot exist without NVIDIA
Both Microsoft and M7 can coexist successfully, and their superiority and position will not change until around 2030

I believe that in 2025, NVIDIA will surpass 200 unless there are wars or geopolitical accidents

Let's overcome anxiety with strong beliefs, not losing to institutional investors, and sometimes persevering with the spirit of forbearance
Only those who can hold NVIDIA shares for the long term can become billionaires

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Kimihiko OP 麦マル : Thank you for your comment♪

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麦マル Kimihiko OP : I'm the one who always appreciates your help

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NOIR(のあ) : It's about AGI, right? The analysis of o1 is interesting, thank you. Of course, the GPU used in this analysis is undoubtedly made by NVDA.
META and MSFT have benefited from AI in terms of revenue, and as the returns on the AI investments of the megatech companies become more and more clear, concerns about the slowdown in demand for NVDA's GPUs will be deemed meaningless. I use AI daily for work and personal purposes, mainly for translation, creating meeting minutes, summaries, extending search engine capabilities, and even image generation. It still feels too convenient. AGI will undergo further accelerated evolution in 2025. I'm excited about what kind of world will unfold in the future. NVDA will be at the heart of it. Recognized for its use in various fields such as LLM, SLM, and edgeAI, and furthermore... It seems like the only stance is to go long. I really agree with what Mr. Maimaru said, "Only long-term holders will become billionaires." The scariest thing is not being able to return once you leave, isn't it?

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ピンハネ・サンタ : Good evening.I believe the stock price estimates for the next 1 month, 6 months, and 1 year ahead using only Candlestick analysis are accurate.The estimates for 1 month and 6 months ahead are not very different from my estimates.High analysis accuracy, right?

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Kimihiko OP NOIR(のあ) : Thank you for your comment♪

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Kimihiko OP ピンハネ・サンタ : Thank you for your comment♪

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TYJO : I asked the same question to o1 out of curiosity, but was told that they don't know about the current situation
I wonder what's different??
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The following content is based on ChatGPT's knowledge cut-off (as of October 2023), and may not reflect the latest stock price movements thereafter. For actual investment decisions, please be sure to refer to the latest Candlestick charts and various information sources.
(End of excerpt)

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ピンハネ・サンタ Kimihiko OP : I expect the Financial Estimates to be 170-180 in next year's Q2 earnings.The 200 breakthrough may be imminent in the Christmas rally one year from now.

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麦マル NOIR(のあ) : NOIR (Noa) -sama
Thank you very much for the encouraging comment
Your clear and detailed explanations are incredibly impressive
Please continue to support us

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Kimihiko

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