Check out this week's financial results and economic calendar (3/18 to 3/22) Japan-US central bank meeting! The world's largest AI event “NVIDIA GTC” will be held!

This week's points
Japanese stocks are expected to rebound this week. In addition to the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting where observations on cancellation of negative interest rate policies are intensified, FOMC will also be held in the United States. If both events pass, it will lead to dispelling the sense of uncertainty about the future. If the possibility of additional interest rate hikes is clearly mentioned at the press conference, and the exchange rate does not fluctuate rapidly, there is no sense of surprise for the stock market, and there is a high possibility that they will like the recession in policy uncertainty for the time being. Also, in his response to the Diet in February, Governor Ueda stated that “there is a high possibility that an accommodative financial environment will continue for the time being” even after negative interest rates are lifted. Even if negative interest rates are lifted at the Bank of Japan meeting, no further steps in, and in the FOMC, interest rate cuts follow the main scenario of tapering (gradual reduction) of quantitative tightening (QT) even after June, it is likely that the market will be steady until the second half of the week.

Concerns about the Bank of Japan meetingHas moved on to policy trends after negative interest rates were liftedGovernor Ueda talks about future policy management at a press conference to be held after the meetingHow to explainis attracting attention. The Bank of Japan's cancellation of negative interest rates has already been factored in in the market, so what is the focusThe pace of future interest rate hikesYaReference to reduction in government bond purchasesIs there one? Will financial stocks, led by megabanks, resume rising or begin adjustments due to running out of materialsThe possibility that we have reached a turning pointThere is. Regarding the FOMC, this time the policy interest rate remains unchanged has been completely factored in. It's just,The price indicators that have come out recently have exceeded market expectationsTherefore, there is a widespread view that the US FRB will be cautious about cutting interest rates early. At FRB Chairman Powell's press conference and the distribution chart “dot chart” of policy interest rate levels by FOMC participants, etc.Will the forecast for when interest rate cuts will start slipping furtherIt will be a major focus. If dovish statements that do not reduce expectations for interest rate cuts in the market come out, momentum for revaluation of growth stocks will increase, mainly semiconductor stocks. Conversely, when accepted as hawkish, there is room for further adjustments in growth stocks. Meanwhile, at FOMC, Chairman Powell has just testified in parliament and is a senior strategist at Daiwa Securities, saying that it would be difficult to drastically change the details. It is said that if the fact that the US FRB is moving towards interest rate cuts does not change, the impact on the market will not be significant.

Last week's market price points
1. The Nikkei Average continued to decline for 2 weeks, and the Bank of Japan's March negative interest rate cancellation forecast increased rapidly　
2. US CPI strengthens cautious arguments about interest rate cuts with higher than expected growth
3. Tesla is a “growth company without growth” where analysts' sense of caution spreads
4. Switch from NVIDIA to AMD? “Even if chips made by other companies are free, they are more expensive than NVIDIA's” Mr. Juan, CEO of NVIDIA
5. US PPI surpassed expectations, a new sign of continued inflation
6. The average wage increase for spring battles is 5.28%, the highest level in 33 years　Preparing the environment for Bank of Japan normalization
7. Bitcoin has plummeted from record highs, profit determination, early interest rate cut observations, and discussions over the “bubble” intensified

The Nikkei Average fell for the second week in a row to 38,707.64 yen, 981.3 yen (2.47%) lower than the previous weekend in the Tokyo stock market last week. Banks and insurance stocks that have had a significant year-to-date increase since the Bank of Japan's policy revision observations have been sold. The wage increase rate for the 2024 Spring Battle announced by the coalition on the 15th was 5.28%, which greatly exceeded 3.80% the previous year, and reached a high level for the first time in 33 years, but the wage increase rate gap widened between major enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises. What are the results this timeContent that supports the Bank of Japan, which is closely monitoring trends in the Spring Battle for policy normalizationSo, at this week's monetary policy meetingThe environment is ready to go through with interest rate hikes for the first time in 17 yearsThere is a view that. The dollar yen fell to around 148.04 at one point, but then rebounded. It has been pointed out that advance factoring has progressed, that this week's Bank of Japan negative interest rate cancellation observations have sufficiently penetrated the market, and that materials have run out for the time being.

As for economic indicators, the results of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February were stronger than expected,Investors' expectations of interest rate cuts have recededI did it. The CPI statistics are also strong for January, and now according to the February dataSigns that inflation is deep-seatedA new one has been shown. The US financial authorities are wary of premature interest rate cuts. However, the market received congressional testimony from the previous Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and US employment statistics, etc., and is raising expectations that interest rate cuts will begin in June,The market sees that the current numbers do not give a big change in that perspectiveit seems.

The rice producer price index (PPI) for FebruaryHigher than expected growthIt shows,Significant increase for the first time in 6 monthsIt became. For US financial officials aiming for further progress in the fight against inflation,It shows that the road is not easy. Meanwhile, the US retail sales that were announced at the same timeIt fell short of expectations. In addition to the reaction of the year-end sales season in January, private consumption was sluggish due to the effects of the cold wave, and a recovery was expected in February. However, since it fell short of market expectations, resilience was not as strong as expected, and it is believed that prolonged inflation is making consumers hesitate to spend discretionary spending. Concerns about the future are spreading.

The crypto asset (virtual currency) Bitcoin hit a low for the first time in a week on the 15th. It hit a record high on the 14th. Discussions are intensifying over whether the recent rapid growth in virtual currency is evidence of speculative floss (bubble, small bubble) in the global market. Also, in response to the high price update, profit-determining sales are also being launched. The fact that US inflation statistics have exceeded expectations and early interest rate cut observations have receded has also led to a decline in investors' risk appetite. US monetary easing observations have been a tailwind for global stocks, bonds, and crypto assets in recent months, but investors are reviewing such views in response to recent signs of deep-seated inflationary pressure from the United States.