Check This Out...

So, we see that the December 20th low for the S&P 500 was taken out on January 2nd. That technically ended the "up" trend that traders had tried to play going into the above-mentioned Santa Rally. Now, the question becomes... Did Friday create a new Day One in search of an upside confirmation? While certainly better than a sharp stick in the eye, not really, or not yet.

While aggregate trading volume was fractionally higher across the S&P 500 on Friday from Thursday, it was not convincing. Take a look below...

Across the Nasdaq Composite, it is clearer that the pop in aggregate trade required to declare a "Day One" just is not there. That does not mean that stocks cannot rally from here, we just do not have a clear set-up. I have seen that US equity index futures are trading higher, despite higher Treasury yields very early on Monday morning. I'll continue to play the environment in front of me, not the one I hope for, nor the one I expected to see. I did tell you that there would be a late week rally last week. I, however, was a day late as I thought that rally would kick in on Thursday. Instead, we did see an improvement in market breadth that baked for a day or two prior to upside movement in the headline indices.