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Semiconductor stocks swing: What's next?
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[Chinese] 2024/7/22 - South East England Regional Market Morning Report

Market news
[America]
US stocks closed higher, investors bet on Trump's victory and interest rate cuts
- Major US stock indexes closed higher on Monday, continuing Friday's rebound, as expectations for Trump's second presidency grew higher after the assassination attempt, increasing hopes for a more relaxed regulatory environment.
- It is increasingly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut key interest rates as early as September, which will also help boost risk appetite.
Tech stocks suffered a sharp setback, and Nasdaq had its worst day since 2022
- Tech stocks plummeted on Wednesday as investors sold off the giants that drove the Wall Street stock market's sharp rise this year. The Nasdaq index fell 2.8%, the worst day since December 2022.
- Tech giant Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell 6.6%, while rival chipmaker Chaowei (AMD) shares fell 10.2%.
- Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that the Biden administration is considering plans to impose more sanctions on Chinese technology companies and tighten restrictions on semiconductor trade between China and the US, triggering a sell-off.
US bonds held by foreign investors rose to record levels in May
- Foreign holdings of US bonds rose to a record high in May, surpassing the record high in March, according to data released by the US Treasury Department on Thursday.
- US bond holdings increased to $8.129 trillion in May from $8.04 trillion after the April revision. Japan's treasury bond reserves shrunk from $1.15 trillion in April to $1.128 trillion, and Japan remains the largest foreign holder of US Treasury bonds. China's debt holdings, which ranked second, fell from $771 billion in April to $768 billion.
Current US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election and expressed support for nominating Vice President He Jinli as the Democratic presidential candidate. Biden issued a statement on social media saying that he originally intended to seek re-election, but in the best interests of the Democratic Party and the country, he decided to withdraw from the election campaign and focus on carrying out his duties for the rest of his term as president.
[China]
The Central Bank of China lowered the interest rate for reverse repurchase operations and said that from now on, the operation will be adjusted to quantitative tenders. The central bank's website announced that in order to further strengthen countercyclical adjustment and increase financial support for the real economy, the 7-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate will be lowered by 10 basis points. The central bank also adjusted the operation to fixed interest rates and volume tenders.
Details of the reforms of the Third Plenary Session of China Central Committee were released, involving consumption tax, commercial housing pre-sale system, transformation of local financing platforms, etc.
- China published the full text of the deepening reform decisions passed by the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee on Sunday, making clear arrangements for economic system reform and high-quality development.
- The decision proposes enacting a private economy promotion law, moving the consumption tax collection process backwards and stabilizing local planning, reforming real estate development financing methods and commercial housing pre-sale systems, improving the real estate tax system, and speeding up the reform and transformation of local financing platforms.
[Japan]
Increased exports from Japan supported growth in the second quarter
- Japan's exports grew for the seventh month in a row in June, supporting the view that the economy will recover in the second quarter from the contraction at the beginning of the year. The Ministry of Finance reported on Thursday that exports increased 5.4% per year, driven by chip manufacturing equipment and non-ferrous metals.
The Japanese government lowered its forecast for economic growth in the 2024 fiscal year from 1.3% to 0.9%, and it is expected that the economy will expand by 1.2% in the 2025 fiscal year. A Japanese government official said that the government and the Bank of Japan must focus on the recent decline in the Japanese yen to guide economic policy.
Company news
[America]
Apple (APPL.US) shares rose 2.5% to a record high on Monday after Morgan Stanley raised the iPhone maker's share price target and designated the stock as a “preferred stock,” saying the company's artificial intelligence efforts would drive device sales.
Robotaxi will drive Tesla (TSLA.US) stock to soar tenfold
- Cathie Wood said Tesla's entry into the more profitable Robotaxi autonomous taxi platform will be a catalyst for a tenfold increase in stock prices.
- She believes that the global autonomous taxi ecosystem will become an 8- to 10-billion dollar revenue opportunity, and that platform providers such as Tesla will account for half.
ASML.US orders are expected to benefit from the AI chip boom
- Mihuzo analyst Kevin Wang said ASML's second-quarter orders are expected to reach nearly $5.4 billion, which is higher than generally expected.
- Analysts said ASML may raise performance guidance as major cutting-edge chip contract suppliers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC), which produces chips for Nvidia and Apple, will announce results on Thursday, and equipment purchases are expected to increase.
[China]
Xiaomi (1810.HK) announced the MIX Flip and MIX Fold 4 foldable screen phones. Among them, the price of the large folding Xiaomi MIX Fold 4 starts at 8,999 yuan, and the small discount Xiaomi MIX Flip starts at 5,999 yuan.
Xiaopeng Motors (9868.HK) announced that it has signed a strategic cooperation and joint development agreement with Volkswagen on electronic and electrical architecture technology. Xiaopeng pointed out that the two sides will fully invest in developing industry-leading electronic and electrical architectures for the CMP and MEB platforms produced by Volkswagen in China, and the signing of the agreement not only indicates that the two sides will accelerate the development of electronic and electrical architectures in China, but also lays the foundation for expanding the scope of strategic cooperation between the two sides in electronic and electrical architecture technology.
[Asia Pacific]
TSMC (2300.TT) Q2 Results Exceed Expectations and Raise 2024 Capital Expenditure Guidelines
- TSMC achieved another significant increase in results in the second quarter of 2024. According to TSMC's financial report released on July 18, Q2 revenue was NT$673.51 billion, up 40.1% year on year and 13.6% month on month. The year-on-year increase was higher than the 35.5% average forecast from analysts.
- Net profit was NT$247.845 billion, up 36.3% year over year and 9.9% month-on-month, higher than analysts' average expectations of NT$235 billion.
Taiwan's “Economic Daily” quoted unnamed people familiar with the matter as reporting that TSMC (2330.TT) recently sent personnel to inspect the Tainan plant in Qunchuang, hoping to join hands with Innocent to expand the advanced packaging layout. According to the news, Innolux will decide as soon as this week that TSMC and Micron will bid for the Tainan plant.
Despite ongoing negotiations, Samsung Electronics' (005930.KP) largest trade union will still hold a protest parade at Ki Hing Park on July 22. It is estimated that more than 1,500 people will participate.
[Chinese] 2024/7/22 - South East England Regional Market Morning Report
[Chinese] 2024/7/22 - South East England Regional Market Morning Report
[Chinese] 2024/7/22 - South East England Regional Market Morning Report
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