Chip analysis theory
Chip analysis theory studies the theory that chips and cash are reversibly exchanged through stock prices and trading volume. It falls within the category of technical analysis and can reflect changes in fundamentals to a certain extent. It is a speculative analysis tool and cannot be used as a basis for investment judgment, but it is an important reference basis that can be used as an important reference basis for judging stock prices. The chip theory shows a relatively deviant box of stock price movements, and it is possible to determine the profit margin. On the distribution of chips, you can see the market and dealer costs. The pressure chart shows the resistance level and support level of stock movement, and provides a reference basis for band operation.
Funny people are open-minded and don't make a fuss when they listen to anything. We don't even dare to drive in our reflectors or rearview mirrors, or walk across the road in a zebra crossing with our eyes closed, yet there are people who dare to walk through spring, summer, autumn, and winter with their eyes closed for the rest of their lives. They only believe in their own feelings and perceptions.
There are four stages in the stock price trend cycle:
Stage A: The infinity cost average runs from downward to flat; commonly known as the bottom-building stage;
Stage B: The infinity cost moving average is flat to upward; commonly known as the upward phase, it can be called the upward phase;
Stage C: The infinity cost moving average upward to flattening; commonly known as the head (top) stage;
Stage D: The average of the infinite cost is flat to the bottom; commonly known as the distribution stage, it can be called the downward phase;
Characteristics of the corresponding chip distribution:
Stage A: The chips are scattered to concentrated, and the degree of divergence decreases.
Stage B: From concentration to dispersion of chips, the degree of divergence increases.
Stage C: The chips are scattered to concentrated, and the degree of divergence decreases.
Stage D: From concentration to dispersion of chips, the degree of divergence increases.
The ultimate truth in the stock market: supply is greater than demand, prices fall, demand is greater than supply prices rise. Supply and demand, in turn, ultimately correspond to capital and chips. As for any other fundamentals, news, confidence, technology, etc., they all only indirectly influence or reflect this nature of the stock market. The essence of stock price movement is equal to the state of chip movement behind trading volume. There are two sides of the power of supply and demand for chips: capital and chips.
The meaning in the stock market is clearly different. When it comes to capital, there is a tendency to say that if there is market information, then there is capital. In other words, having market conditions is the key; this is the main line of medium- to long-term stock market trends. Chips, on the other hand, are the medium for stock market stakeholders to play games. Only by grasping the key of chips can we essentially grasp the price trend of stocks. Therefore, from a gaming perspective, chips are the core of stock market games.
The chip theory is actually a form of restoration: all the factors that influence supply and demand in the stock market are reduced to chips, as well as the power, interests, competition, concentration of control, fragmentation, transfer, etc. reflected behind chips. The core of stock market research should be market costs! Cash is the main thing in a bear market, and chips are king in a bull market. Profiting from stocks is nothing more than a process of turning cash at a low level into stocks and then exchanging stocks for cash at a high level. Seen from another perspective, it is the movement of chips. Mainstream capital is the carrier of chips, and the cost of chips is the key, and cost analysis will become a very important branch of technical analysis.
1. Determine the distribution and changes of chips in high-transaction areas.
2. Determine important resistance and support levels in market development.
3. Formulate corresponding operation strategies by analyzing changes in the market.
Chips are the core of stock games. This is the principle that chips are king in a bull market. Whoever has more chips will gain initiative in future games. When it comes to chips, research should be carried out from the following aspects.
The cost of chips
This is the core issue of chips. The cost of mainstream capital or the vast majority of chips in the market plays a decisive role in stock trends. The concept of a cost average is introduced here, which mainly reflects the average cost average of holding capital in the market.
The difference between an average moving line and a cost average. The cost average takes into account the role of transaction volume in the calculation, and uses a neural network method to solve the problem of repeated transactions by short-term customers within the calculation period, which can actually reflect the cost of the final shareholder. The 5th, 13th, and 34-day cost averages represent the average market opening costs for the 5th, 13th, and 34th, respectively. If the average cost of a certain day is 10.2 yuan on the 13th, it means that the average cost of people who have bought this stock since the 13th is 10.2 yuan. An infinitely long cost average indicates the average cost of opening a position for all stocks in the market.
The infinity cost average is the most important cost average. It is an important watershed in the market. Just like the value curve, stock prices always fluctuate up and down. Here, another concept has been introduced. The multiplication and error ratio of an infinite cost average is also known as a profit and loss indicator.
This indicator reflects investors' average profit and loss. Profit and loss are of great significance to short-term operations, while primers, especially infinite BIAS, play a decisive role in medium- to long-term judgments. This indicator plays an important role in investment plans and ideas.
The pattern of chip distribution
Areas with intensive transactions form chip peaks, and areas between the two peaks form valleys. This is a visual pattern of chip distribution. The movement of chips accompanies the concentration and dispersion of chips. It is bound to be accompanied by a high concentration of chips, leading to a peak. Dense is divided into high level intensive and low level dense.
Any round of the market will go through changing hands from low positions to high positions, and then changing hands from high positions to low positions. The process of chip movement is a process of achieving profit. (Of course, it's also a process of cutting meat and losing money)
A full change of hands at a low level is a sign that the fund-raising stage has been completed, and a full change of hands at a high level is a sign that the distribution stage has been completed.
Cost-intensive is the preparation process for the next stage of the market situation, and cost diversification is the process of market development.
The concentration of chips
It indicates the magnitude of the main area where the main chips are accumulated. The higher the value, the greater the concentration of chips, and the more scattered the chips are. What needs to be particularly reminded is that the meaning of concentration is not the same as the dealer's control board; it is not at all the same as the Dragon Tiger ranking data.
As far as it is currently concerned, it is impossible to compile it into a plan; it can only be summarized through observation of each stock, and the following results have been obtained.
1. Stocks with a high concentration of chips (below 10) have strong explosive power, and have risen or fallen quite a bit.
2. The rise in stocks with low chip concentration (especially those over 20) has weakened markedly.
3. The concentration process of chips is the preparation process for the next stage of the market, while the divergence process is the process of market development.
Active chips
Chip distribution allows us to see the distribution of other people's shareholding costs, and is a very effective tool for us to do cost analysis. When we carefully looked at the changes in chip distribution, we found that chips near the stock price were the least stable and the easiest to participate in trading, because stock holders close to the stock price were the least able to withstand the temptation. If they wanted to make a profit, they quickly exchanged floating profit for actual profit;
They want to take advantage of their losses and sell them quickly, use their capital to buy additional stocks, and quickly make back their losses. However, if you stay away from the stock price, the chips at the bottom will increase your confidence in holding shares because you have a certain profit; the chips at the top will not want to cut meat because they are too deep, so chips near the stock price are the most active, while above and below the stock price, chips that are far from the stock price are less active.
Active chips reflect the percentage of chips close to the stock price of all chips in circulation. Its value ranges from 0 to 100. Higher values indicate more active chips near the stock price, and lower values indicate fewer active chips near the stock price.
The amount of active chips can also be used to describe the intensity of chips. If the value of today's active chips is 50, it indicates that chips close to the stock price are concentrated. If the value of today's active chips is 10, it means that there are few chips close to the stock price. Most chips are far from the stock price, making a lot of profit, or losing a lot.
It is worth noting that active chips have very small values. For example, after a stock has been declining for a long time, the value of active chips is very small (less than 10), and most of the chips are in a deep state. At this point, most shareholders are no longer willing to cut the meat out, so it can often be a good buying point at this time;
Another example: after a stock has risen over a period of time, the active chips are very small (less than 10), and most of the chips are in a state where there is a lot of profit. If the value of market control is high at this time (greater than 20), it has obvious stock characteristics in the early stages. The overall increase is not very large, and it can also be a good buying point. Therefore, when the stock price runs to different stages, considering how many active chips are there can be a good auxiliary effect.
When the price of chips is high and there are no obvious signs of shipping, imagine that a stock has dropped by more than 30%, but there has never been any release, and the high-end and low-end chips have not moved. This is not normal. Retail investors are scattered, and if they fall to a certain extent, there will definitely be many people who will stop loss and leave the market, and if the market continues to fall unabated, it only shows that some of the main players are covered, because the main players are generally unable to stop losses and exit the market. That kind of cost is too high. This type of stock is best suited for escapement operations.
When the price of chips is low, a stock has risen by more than 20%, and has never been released, and it is not normal for the bottom end to be dense with chips not moving. Generally, few retail investors can withstand such temptations and refuse to ship. This only shows that some of the main players are operating, yet most of the main players will not leave the market without profits of 30% or more, because net profit without expenses is too low. This type of seat is most suitable for sedan operation.
Although some stocks are at a high level, when they rise, they are released or consolidated over a long period of time, causing chips to be concentrated at a high level. Generally, the main players in these stocks have left the market, and the risk in the future market will be greater. Some stocks are low in volume or consolidated over a long period of time, and there is a high concentration of chips at low levels. Generally, this is caused by the main forces collecting them, and there is a high chance that they can be manipulated.
Weaknesses of chip theory
1. It is impossible to accurately count the distribution of chips. Software companies are generally unable to obtain the operating status of all shareholders' accounts. Even if they can obtain the operating status, it will also be because shareholders have traded the same stock many times, making it impossible to calculate the cost of holding positions; therefore, the current software uses a proportional estimation method to estimate the chip price situation, and the chip accuracy it shows is somewhat different from the actual situation. However, in most cases, I think these differences are not enough to influence the use of chip theory.
2. Human factors interfere. The matter is man-made; any theory can be artificially manipulated. There are some highly controlled stocks, and the main forces are unable to sell goods. At leisure, they sometimes use this theory to make some conceals, because a lot of money comes from the rivalry of old funds, which conceals the truth.
Contrary to the trend
Stocks fall below the single-dense peak. If the stock price falls too much and the original single-dense peak is not consumed, a V-shaped reversal will occur, and the first target of reversal is at the original peak.
• Stock prices fell below the original single peak intensity;
• Stock prices are falling at a faster rate;
• The original single peak concentration still exists in the fall to the overfall zone;
• The fewer active chips the better.
• The smaller the upper chips, the better.
Follow up immediately after confirmation of a V-shaped reversal of the overfall; or the infinite deviation reaches -30, the more it falls, the more it buys. Stock prices rebounded to the region where single peaks were concentrated, and the market was on the sidelines.
Follow the trend
A breaks through the low level:
Stock prices have been sorted out over a long period of time, and the distribution of mobile costs at low levels has formed a single peak concentration. At the same time, stock price amplification exceeding single peak intensity is a sign of a round of rising market conditions.
• A sufficient condition for a round of upward market activity is that the distribution of mobile costs forms a concentration of low peaks;
• The higher the intensity of a single peak, the more sufficient chips to change hands, and the greater the strength of the offensive;
• The high concentration of low single peaks means that the room for stock prices to rise is completely open;
• Relatively low levels should be confirmed from historical trends;
• The longer it takes for a single peak to form intensively, the greater its reliability;
• Breakthrough must be confirmed by a large trading volume;
• The breakout stock price effectively crossed intensive peaks and reached a recent high.
• Active chips should generally be at least 85.
B breaks through at a high level:
After a round of growth, stocks form a high concentration of single peaks. If the stock price breaks through the peak intensity again, it will be the beginning of a new round of growth.
• After a round of increase in stock prices, high single peaks are concentrated;
• A breakthrough in stock prices must reach a recent record high;
• It is necessary to historically study the causes of high level concentration;
• The stock price falls back down to a high level of intensive peak setting until the loss level is set;
• Trading with short-term strategies;
• Beware of fake breakthroughs.
Funny people are open-minded and don't make a fuss when they listen to anything. We don't even dare to drive in our reflectors or rearview mirrors, or walk across the road in a zebra crossing with our eyes closed, yet there are people who dare to walk through spring, summer, autumn, and winter with their eyes closed for the rest of their lives. They only believe in their own feelings and perceptions.
There are four stages in the stock price trend cycle:
Stage A: The infinity cost average runs from downward to flat; commonly known as the bottom-building stage;
Stage B: The infinity cost moving average is flat to upward; commonly known as the upward phase, it can be called the upward phase;
Stage C: The infinity cost moving average upward to flattening; commonly known as the head (top) stage;
Stage D: The average of the infinite cost is flat to the bottom; commonly known as the distribution stage, it can be called the downward phase;
Characteristics of the corresponding chip distribution:
Stage A: The chips are scattered to concentrated, and the degree of divergence decreases.
Stage B: From concentration to dispersion of chips, the degree of divergence increases.
Stage C: The chips are scattered to concentrated, and the degree of divergence decreases.
Stage D: From concentration to dispersion of chips, the degree of divergence increases.
The ultimate truth in the stock market: supply is greater than demand, prices fall, demand is greater than supply prices rise. Supply and demand, in turn, ultimately correspond to capital and chips. As for any other fundamentals, news, confidence, technology, etc., they all only indirectly influence or reflect this nature of the stock market. The essence of stock price movement is equal to the state of chip movement behind trading volume. There are two sides of the power of supply and demand for chips: capital and chips.
The meaning in the stock market is clearly different. When it comes to capital, there is a tendency to say that if there is market information, then there is capital. In other words, having market conditions is the key; this is the main line of medium- to long-term stock market trends. Chips, on the other hand, are the medium for stock market stakeholders to play games. Only by grasping the key of chips can we essentially grasp the price trend of stocks. Therefore, from a gaming perspective, chips are the core of stock market games.
The chip theory is actually a form of restoration: all the factors that influence supply and demand in the stock market are reduced to chips, as well as the power, interests, competition, concentration of control, fragmentation, transfer, etc. reflected behind chips. The core of stock market research should be market costs! Cash is the main thing in a bear market, and chips are king in a bull market. Profiting from stocks is nothing more than a process of turning cash at a low level into stocks and then exchanging stocks for cash at a high level. Seen from another perspective, it is the movement of chips. Mainstream capital is the carrier of chips, and the cost of chips is the key, and cost analysis will become a very important branch of technical analysis.
1. Determine the distribution and changes of chips in high-transaction areas.
2. Determine important resistance and support levels in market development.
3. Formulate corresponding operation strategies by analyzing changes in the market.
Chips are the core of stock games. This is the principle that chips are king in a bull market. Whoever has more chips will gain initiative in future games. When it comes to chips, research should be carried out from the following aspects.
The cost of chips
This is the core issue of chips. The cost of mainstream capital or the vast majority of chips in the market plays a decisive role in stock trends. The concept of a cost average is introduced here, which mainly reflects the average cost average of holding capital in the market.
The difference between an average moving line and a cost average. The cost average takes into account the role of transaction volume in the calculation, and uses a neural network method to solve the problem of repeated transactions by short-term customers within the calculation period, which can actually reflect the cost of the final shareholder. The 5th, 13th, and 34-day cost averages represent the average market opening costs for the 5th, 13th, and 34th, respectively. If the average cost of a certain day is 10.2 yuan on the 13th, it means that the average cost of people who have bought this stock since the 13th is 10.2 yuan. An infinitely long cost average indicates the average cost of opening a position for all stocks in the market.
The infinity cost average is the most important cost average. It is an important watershed in the market. Just like the value curve, stock prices always fluctuate up and down. Here, another concept has been introduced. The multiplication and error ratio of an infinite cost average is also known as a profit and loss indicator.
This indicator reflects investors' average profit and loss. Profit and loss are of great significance to short-term operations, while primers, especially infinite BIAS, play a decisive role in medium- to long-term judgments. This indicator plays an important role in investment plans and ideas.
The pattern of chip distribution
Areas with intensive transactions form chip peaks, and areas between the two peaks form valleys. This is a visual pattern of chip distribution. The movement of chips accompanies the concentration and dispersion of chips. It is bound to be accompanied by a high concentration of chips, leading to a peak. Dense is divided into high level intensive and low level dense.
Any round of the market will go through changing hands from low positions to high positions, and then changing hands from high positions to low positions. The process of chip movement is a process of achieving profit. (Of course, it's also a process of cutting meat and losing money)
A full change of hands at a low level is a sign that the fund-raising stage has been completed, and a full change of hands at a high level is a sign that the distribution stage has been completed.
Cost-intensive is the preparation process for the next stage of the market situation, and cost diversification is the process of market development.
The concentration of chips
It indicates the magnitude of the main area where the main chips are accumulated. The higher the value, the greater the concentration of chips, and the more scattered the chips are. What needs to be particularly reminded is that the meaning of concentration is not the same as the dealer's control board; it is not at all the same as the Dragon Tiger ranking data.
As far as it is currently concerned, it is impossible to compile it into a plan; it can only be summarized through observation of each stock, and the following results have been obtained.
1. Stocks with a high concentration of chips (below 10) have strong explosive power, and have risen or fallen quite a bit.
2. The rise in stocks with low chip concentration (especially those over 20) has weakened markedly.
3. The concentration process of chips is the preparation process for the next stage of the market, while the divergence process is the process of market development.
Active chips
Chip distribution allows us to see the distribution of other people's shareholding costs, and is a very effective tool for us to do cost analysis. When we carefully looked at the changes in chip distribution, we found that chips near the stock price were the least stable and the easiest to participate in trading, because stock holders close to the stock price were the least able to withstand the temptation. If they wanted to make a profit, they quickly exchanged floating profit for actual profit;
They want to take advantage of their losses and sell them quickly, use their capital to buy additional stocks, and quickly make back their losses. However, if you stay away from the stock price, the chips at the bottom will increase your confidence in holding shares because you have a certain profit; the chips at the top will not want to cut meat because they are too deep, so chips near the stock price are the most active, while above and below the stock price, chips that are far from the stock price are less active.
Active chips reflect the percentage of chips close to the stock price of all chips in circulation. Its value ranges from 0 to 100. Higher values indicate more active chips near the stock price, and lower values indicate fewer active chips near the stock price.
The amount of active chips can also be used to describe the intensity of chips. If the value of today's active chips is 50, it indicates that chips close to the stock price are concentrated. If the value of today's active chips is 10, it means that there are few chips close to the stock price. Most chips are far from the stock price, making a lot of profit, or losing a lot.
It is worth noting that active chips have very small values. For example, after a stock has been declining for a long time, the value of active chips is very small (less than 10), and most of the chips are in a deep state. At this point, most shareholders are no longer willing to cut the meat out, so it can often be a good buying point at this time;
Another example: after a stock has risen over a period of time, the active chips are very small (less than 10), and most of the chips are in a state where there is a lot of profit. If the value of market control is high at this time (greater than 20), it has obvious stock characteristics in the early stages. The overall increase is not very large, and it can also be a good buying point. Therefore, when the stock price runs to different stages, considering how many active chips are there can be a good auxiliary effect.
When the price of chips is high and there are no obvious signs of shipping, imagine that a stock has dropped by more than 30%, but there has never been any release, and the high-end and low-end chips have not moved. This is not normal. Retail investors are scattered, and if they fall to a certain extent, there will definitely be many people who will stop loss and leave the market, and if the market continues to fall unabated, it only shows that some of the main players are covered, because the main players are generally unable to stop losses and exit the market. That kind of cost is too high. This type of stock is best suited for escapement operations.
When the price of chips is low, a stock has risen by more than 20%, and has never been released, and it is not normal for the bottom end to be dense with chips not moving. Generally, few retail investors can withstand such temptations and refuse to ship. This only shows that some of the main players are operating, yet most of the main players will not leave the market without profits of 30% or more, because net profit without expenses is too low. This type of seat is most suitable for sedan operation.
Although some stocks are at a high level, when they rise, they are released or consolidated over a long period of time, causing chips to be concentrated at a high level. Generally, the main players in these stocks have left the market, and the risk in the future market will be greater. Some stocks are low in volume or consolidated over a long period of time, and there is a high concentration of chips at low levels. Generally, this is caused by the main forces collecting them, and there is a high chance that they can be manipulated.
Weaknesses of chip theory
1. It is impossible to accurately count the distribution of chips. Software companies are generally unable to obtain the operating status of all shareholders' accounts. Even if they can obtain the operating status, it will also be because shareholders have traded the same stock many times, making it impossible to calculate the cost of holding positions; therefore, the current software uses a proportional estimation method to estimate the chip price situation, and the chip accuracy it shows is somewhat different from the actual situation. However, in most cases, I think these differences are not enough to influence the use of chip theory.
2. Human factors interfere. The matter is man-made; any theory can be artificially manipulated. There are some highly controlled stocks, and the main forces are unable to sell goods. At leisure, they sometimes use this theory to make some conceals, because a lot of money comes from the rivalry of old funds, which conceals the truth.
Contrary to the trend
Stocks fall below the single-dense peak. If the stock price falls too much and the original single-dense peak is not consumed, a V-shaped reversal will occur, and the first target of reversal is at the original peak.
• Stock prices fell below the original single peak intensity;
• Stock prices are falling at a faster rate;
• The original single peak concentration still exists in the fall to the overfall zone;
• The fewer active chips the better.
• The smaller the upper chips, the better.
Follow up immediately after confirmation of a V-shaped reversal of the overfall; or the infinite deviation reaches -30, the more it falls, the more it buys. Stock prices rebounded to the region where single peaks were concentrated, and the market was on the sidelines.
Follow the trend
A breaks through the low level:
Stock prices have been sorted out over a long period of time, and the distribution of mobile costs at low levels has formed a single peak concentration. At the same time, stock price amplification exceeding single peak intensity is a sign of a round of rising market conditions.
• A sufficient condition for a round of upward market activity is that the distribution of mobile costs forms a concentration of low peaks;
• The higher the intensity of a single peak, the more sufficient chips to change hands, and the greater the strength of the offensive;
• The high concentration of low single peaks means that the room for stock prices to rise is completely open;
• Relatively low levels should be confirmed from historical trends;
• The longer it takes for a single peak to form intensively, the greater its reliability;
• Breakthrough must be confirmed by a large trading volume;
• The breakout stock price effectively crossed intensive peaks and reached a recent high.
• Active chips should generally be at least 85.
B breaks through at a high level:
After a round of growth, stocks form a high concentration of single peaks. If the stock price breaks through the peak intensity again, it will be the beginning of a new round of growth.
• After a round of increase in stock prices, high single peaks are concentrated;
• A breakthrough in stock prices must reach a recent record high;
• It is necessary to historically study the causes of high level concentration;
• The stock price falls back down to a high level of intensive peak setting until the loss level is set;
• Trading with short-term strategies;
• Beware of fake breakthroughs.
*******
Let's talk about chips again
Just like your “gentleness,” just like a river of spring water flowing eastward, falling flowers flowing water. Whose house is the flower falling?
Within the borders of the Maple Leaf version of China, it really has a vast land area, all kinds of mineral resources, freshwater resources, oil and gas resources, forest resources, including nuclear resources such as uranium, etc., are extremely rich and complete, rich in properties, and directly connected to the vast inland region by the port of commerce and overseas,...
A certain day in a certain year, a certain month
Like a broken face
It's hard to open the road again
Just let everything go a long way
It's not an easy task
We haven't even cried
Let it come softly
Let it go nicely
I won't be able to stop nostalgic until the end of this year
I miss you, miss the past
But I hope that sea breeze comes back just because of the waves
Just like your “gentleness”
A certain day in a certain year, a certain month
Like a broken face
It's hard to open the road again
Just let everything go a long way
It's not an easy task
We haven't even cried
Let it come softly
Let it go nicely
I won't be able to stop nostalgic until the end of this year
I miss you, miss the past
But I hope that sea breeze comes back just because of the waves
Just like your “gentleness”
I won't be able to stop nostalgic until the end of this year
I miss you, miss the past
But I hope that sea breeze comes back just because of the waves
Just like your “gentleness”
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成熟投资者：格局，概率，取舍。没有格局必然急功近利。不计概率会把运气当技术。不懂取舍，有所不为，最后必落入陷阱和圈套。
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