Chips Bubbles

102334963 : How many times Nvidia

MomentumPython1337 : i replied you when you commented on my post and you not only ignored me but continued to post this again. so i am copy pasting my entire reply so that people do NOT get misled by your misinformation

my reply in full below with screenshot - in fact with the sell off yesterday and today the PEG ratio should be lower now it should be between 0.9x to 1x given that they also raised forward guidance.

the share price doubled because back then TSM was seriously  undervalued for the forward earnings and revenue growth. people were sleeping on AI and didn't realize how much TSM could earn from this and its position as the world's biggest semicon fabricator

forward PEG ratio still hovering near 1.1x which is, by peter lynch standards, fairly valued. sure you have differences between sectors, but TSM deserves a much higher premium given its leadership in semiconductors imo. sure you can put a discount because of geopolitical risk, you put a discount there and say the max you're willing to accept is 1.5x PEG instead of 2x or instead of 2.5x for a US company.

it's definitely not at bubble levels. i would need to see something like PEG ratio of 2x at the very least to start getting worried.

the bear case is that AI demand will slow down in coming quarters and that causes revenue growth to be below the forecasts listed here, so the denominator (earnings growth) contracts, then the PEG ratio will expand and hit 2x maybe even 2.5x. at that point i would not take a long position on TSM.

so far there is no data to support this slowdown in demand yet. i remain fairly bullish.

p.s. data from NASDAQ btw

ZhixiongShen MomentumPython1337 :