Confidence in a US rate cut is further decreasing - US bonds fluctuate amid the emergence of arguments for keeping rates unchanged.
October 12, 2024 1:14 JST (excerpt)
The probability of interest rates remaining unchanged in either November or December is about 20% - according to the swap market.
USA economic indicators are mixed, weakening conviction for consecutive rate cuts.
In the US bond market, confidence in whether the financial authorities will cut interest rates twice more this year is decreasing.
Interest rate swap market is pricing in about a 20% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep the policy rate unchanged at either the November or December meeting. Even after the unexpected job statistics on the 4th, the market had priced in an additional 50 basis points (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) cut by the end of the year.
The probability of interest rates remaining unchanged in either November or December is about 20% - according to the swap market.
USA economic indicators are mixed, weakening conviction for consecutive rate cuts.
In the US bond market, confidence in whether the financial authorities will cut interest rates twice more this year is decreasing.
Interest rate swap market is pricing in about a 20% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will keep the policy rate unchanged at either the November or December meeting. Even after the unexpected job statistics on the 4th, the market had priced in an additional 50 basis points (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) cut by the end of the year.
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