Being realistic about the market trend
$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ is being hammered. But so are other stocks and the market overall. The market fundamentally thrives on fear and greed (as evident with the created index). But this also means conservative investors will need to show resilience.
I realise there is chatter around recession. But a challenging economy doesn’t automatically mean a recession. Then comes the “AI bubble burst” conversation. The outlook for AI and Tech is very strong until 2030. Election year is always challenging. So to peg the market as pro or anti a particular candidate is a temporary stance. See the chart (except 2008 where it was real recession) and you’ll realise the bearish months are not the beginning of doom and gloom.
Be cautious when you trade in this climate. If you are long, hold on for the future or to stop out at the next price rally. Many investors I know have call options going into next year. While one won’t see 100-200% increase, I anticipate enough rallies from Oct to Jan for people to reevaluate their investment stance.
NFA - but try and play the trend in difficult markets. If you are anxious, put your trading app away and come back after a break. There is no ‘moon landing’ to miss but if you are practical, you can salvage some profit and a lot of your pride in Oct or Nov.
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An analyst building the trader mindset with deep understanding of day trading and value investing.
My comments are NFA
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pootpoot : first step is for nvidia to survive above 90 this period creating a higher lower low change of trend to a new highs. always have to save reserves for any worse case scenarios![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
R30R OP pootpoot : Agree. Staying above 200 MA is key.
Not everyone is savvy in playing the market. In which case, trusting the fundamentals and staying on course is good enough. Fretting about a stock is valid if the results were subpar or the forward guidance was questionable. The earning beat not being “good enough” is simply greed justifying disappointment. :)
Trends are manipulated. There was no way NVDA was going to buy back shares at prices close to 115-120. Just hoping pushing the price down doesn’t push it too far.
However, they will need to justify the market cap before Blackwell. So there is bound to be a push before the next ER towards new ATHs.