core PCE

United States announced July 26, 2024core PCEThe result was 2.6% compared to 2.6% the previous month.

ThisStock depreciationIt's a factor.

By falling pricesConsumer desire to buyIt has been stimulated, making it difficult for prices to fall.

unemployment rateIn the current situation where it is risingcore PCEIt is contradictory that it is reluctant to decline.

There are times when commodity prices, starting with crude oil, skyrocketed and boosted the price index.

Currently, commodity prices are stable, so this is not a factor driving up prices.

Consumers' desire to buy is healthyunemployment rateIt won't go up and the interest rate cut period will go backwards.

ThisStock depreciationIt's a factor.

FRBAs a precautionary measureInterest rate cutsThe possibility of executing is undeniable.

The most feared situation is after interest rate cutsunemployment rateIt means speeding up.

If we were to fall into this situation, stock prices would crash drastically.

Conversely, after interest rate cutsunemployment rateIf it falls, stock prices will rise.

If interest rates are cut under these circumstances, there is a high probability that inflation will be rekindled, so I think it will be difficult to cut interest rates.

What is the main reason that reduces consumers' desire to buymortgage interest ratesIt's at a standstill high.

If the house doesn't sellrentsIf it rises and houses don't sell, the liquidity of the economy will slow down.

I said earlier that it would be difficult to cut interest rates, but the FedConsumer buying mentalityIf it is determined that it is biased towards deflationInterest rate cutsIt's possible.

This is because if many people are in a situation where they are exhausted by inflation, purchasing desire will not be stimulated even if interest rates are cut.

Since only the declining housing market can be stimulated, it is possible to prevent the rise in the unemployment rate.

Thissoft landingIt is a factor leading to stock appreciation.

The United States announced on 2024/7/24 23:30Gasoline inventory (compared to previous week)The result is +3.328 million barrels the previous week-5.572 million barrelsThere was a big decrease.

This economic indicator is characterized by high volatility. The ups and downs are a sharp indicator.

gasoline inventoryThe fact that it has declined drastically means that economic activity is active.