CPI Data Sparks Anticipation of Interest Rate Cuts

Amidst the non-farm payroll data significantly surpassing expectations, the May CPI figures were released, showing an unadjusted year-over-year increase of 3.3%, with a forecast of 3.4%. Following the announcement, major stock indices began to surge, heralding the commencement of another episode in the interest rate cut saga. My speculation is that the influx of illegal immigrants in the United States may have contributed to the prosperity of the labor market but failed to make a significant contribution to economic growth, which can be somewhat inferred from the higher-than-expected unemployment rate. The market currently seems to expect a high probability of a rate cut in July, and if that does not materialize, a cut in November seems almost inevitable.