After the CPI announcement, there are uncertainties about the FRB outlook...
☆ Fundamental Analysis
- NASDAQ, Bitcoin (Rating: 2.9/5): It is expected that there will be a rate cut, but the future demand fluctuations will depend on the rate of the rate cut. The progress of NVIDIA's Blackwell production status is a concern for NASDAQ. The impact of the US presidential election on Bitcoin seems to be mixed.
- USD/JPY (Rating: 1.3/5): Since there is a scenario of a US rate cut and Bank of Japan rate hike, the focus will be on how much the decline will be in the future.
- TMF (Rating: 2.75/5): Although US bond auctions have been sluggish, bond yields have been decreasing since last month and people are starting to gather in the bond market. However, the future demand fluctuations will depend on the rate of the rate cut.
========================================================================
☆ US Economic Indicators (Rating: NASDAQ, TMF, Bitcoin 3.5/5 USD/JPY 1/5)
- Wholesale sales in July (Month-on-month change): Result 1.1% (Previous value -0.6%)
- August CPI (YoY): Forecast 2.6% Result 2.5%(Previous Value 2.9%)
- CPI Core Index (YoY): Forecast 3.2% Result 3.2% (Previous Value 3.2%)
- PPI (MoM): Forecast 1.8% Result 1.7%(Previous Value 2.2%)
- PPI Core Index (excluding food and energy / YoY): Forecast 2.5% Result 2.4%(前回値 2.4% )
・前週分新規失業保険申請件数：予想 0.23 million件 結果 0.23 million件(前回値 0.227 million件)
・前週分失業保険継続受給者数：予想 1.845 million人 結果 1.85 million人(前回値 1.838 million人)
・9月ミシガン大学消費者態度指数・速報値：予想 68.5 結果 69.0(Previous value 67.9)
→ Inflation-related indicator expected to match or fall below expectations. Focus is on the unemployment rate, but inflation resurgence is also emerging.
☆ Statement by important person (Assessment: NASDAQ, bitcoin, TMF 2.5/5, USD/JPY 1/5)
11th
Nakagawa Bank of Japan Review Committee member
"If the outlook is realized, we will adjust the degree of easing" "The domestic economy is evaluated as recovering moderately"
12th
Tamura Bank of Japan deliberation committee member
"At least a 1% rate hike is necessary in the latter half of the forecast period", and gradually raise short-term interest rates to determine the appropriate level for the economy and prices.
"The next rate hike is likely to be at a slower pace than in Europe and the United States."
12th
European Central Bank (ECB) statement
"As long as necessary, keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive", "Inflation is expected to rise again in the second half of this year", "ECB staff forecasts have downwardly revised GDP forecasts for 2024 to 2026", "ECB staff forecasts have slightly upwardly revised core inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025"
Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB)
"The labor market continues to show resilience", "Downside risks to growth in the euro area", "Interest rate cuts were unanimous", "The data obtained supported the previous forecasts"
"The inflation is expected to decrease to 2% within 2025." "However, the inflation rate is expected to rise again in the fourth quarter."
☆ US bond auction situation (Evaluation: NASDAQ, Bitcoin, USD/JPY 2.5/5, TMF 3/5)
・ US 10-year bond: 3.648% (previous: 3.960%) Market Yield 3.657%
・ US 30-year bond: 4.015% (previous: 4.314%) Market Yield 3.984%
→ Overall bond yields have decreased from the previous value, and the yields of US 20/30 year bonds have exceeded the market yields, increasing the investment appeal of bonds. However, in the event of a preventive interest rate cut, concerns about a hard landing and a decrease in investment appeal due to a decline in bonds also arise. In response to the preventive interest rate cut in the bond market, other financial markets are also somewhat tense.
☆Other (Rating: NASDAQ 3.5/5, TMF 2/5, Bitcoin 3/5, USD/JPY 1/5)
Juan spoke at the Goldman Sachs Group's technology conference in San Francisco on the 11th. He stated, "Demand is very high. Everyone wants to be the first and everyone wants to be at the top." Juan pointed out the strong demand for NVIDIA's next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor "Blackwell." He mentioned that the company outsources the physical production of hardware to external partners, and these suppliers are making maximum efforts to keep up with the demand.
Can we continue to expect strong demand for the semiconductor "Blackwell" in the future?
Federal Reserve (FRB) is increasingly speculated to make a significant rate cut next week, causing a decline in US financial and bond markets, with yields on government bonds falling.
If it becomes a precautionary rate cut, concerns about a hard landing and reduced investment appeal due to lower bond yields will decrease.
On the 12th, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) amended the complaint in the case with Binance, removing the term "crypto asset securities." This amendment was announced by the SEC in July this year. It mentioned modifying the complaint, including allegations regarding "third-party virtual asset securities," with the current clarification on this matter. The SEC's move has faced criticism similar to when it announced amending the complaint in July, with accusations of applying rules in an arbitrary manner.
→ 市場の圧力が薄まるか？
・１１日、日銀の中川順子審議委員の利上げに対する前向きな発言が伝わり、円買いに傾いた。東京時間に開催された米大統領選挙候補者のテレビ討論会の影響は限定的。ただ、ハリス氏が優勢だったことで米国のインフレ懸念が後退し、ドル・円の下落に波及したとの見方もあった。同日、米８月ＣＰＩ（消費者物価指数）コア指数の前月からの伸びが加速し、ＦＲＢ（米連邦準備制度理事会）の目先の大幅利下げ観測が弱まり、反発した。１２日、日銀の田村直樹審議委員のタカ派的な発言などを受けて円買い・ドル売りとなった。
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
