CPI inflation may begin to spike again:
The NFIB survey asks 10,000 firms if they plan to increase selling prices over the next 3 months.
Over the last 3 months, the number of firms responding "yes" has jumped from 20% to nearly 40%.
As shown in the chart below, this survey is highly correlated with CPI inflation.
With the recent divergence between inflation and this survey, the gap needs to close.
The Fed won't like this.