CPI UP! PPI up?

Update: This youtube video is good, discussing the rate cut in 2007, and the rate cut this year, a similar scenario. If you have the time and ability, you should take a look. If you don't have time, remember that the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is rising. October 2007 vs. October 2024 (Similarities Are SHOCKING)The Fed must be hiding something, watching the stock god clearing out Bank of America and Apple. Within this year, there must be a big hole coming...

厡文:

If predicting CPI, the simplest method is usually M2: the money supply, which is positively correlated with CPI. Usually, M2 leads CPI by 12-18 months. Put simply, the market needs to be flooded with money first, so that everyone has money, and when people have money, they will go shopping crazily, leading to price increases. This process typically takes about 12-18 months.

But if we use16months, then take the most recent peakTake two to compare. you will see the changes in CPI in the next 12-18 months.
Look at the picture below:

M2 in red line, and Lines, and CPI BLUE (Scroll forward, do not scroll forward, you will see the bottom picture, I also put it up for your reference), line up, stand up... align...

In the picture, the yellow dashed line represents the time point of the previous month. So, the CPI was declining, but the CPI announced this time is on the rise.CPIWill rise along withM2will rise. Have you studied mmf 101, can write in-class quizzes... Look.. Fed board members... Does no one understand?? Or are those pretending to be drunk not going to wake up? If the Fed dares to cut interest rates by two points, isn't that a very funny thing.
Next, look at the chart with a very dynamicPPI Brown lineIs CPI is in red The leading indicators are more volatile, so will the PPI rise more significantly after this CPI increase on Thursday? In theory, it should rise..

Now, I dare not say much about the CPI, PPI, and non-farm data released by the Americans... It's really too dreamy, not to mention that the CPI of civil institutions is still above 4%, it's about to drop to 2%, last time the non-farm data, WS gave at most 150K, considered giving you face, but ended up giving 254K, not to forget August, BIS once lowered the employment figure by 810K at once, because the response rate was low, only about 60%, used to be 90%, so now it's impossible to estimate the correct number. Are you still shamelessly going to revise the non-farm numbers of the previous two months this October, BIS, preparing for a major water injection, will you cut a million people in one go next time?

CPI, 出來的結果是往上走, 這個不用太驚訝, 因為CPI會再持續往上走至少一年以上, 也就是說Fed想保持通貨膨脹在2%, 至少二年內是看不到的。(這個我也很難說, 現在出來的數據都太夢幻, 現在做股票, 要跟他們保持在拉K的心理狀態, 千萬不要上過學, 讀過書, 才能賺到錢, 至少可以做路邊撿錢黨。)

The Fed's most important task is to maintain CPI at 2%, this is the Fed's promise to the people. Instead of addressing important matters, the Fed decided to lower interest rates, speculate in stocks, are the policy bullish? Using national tools to lower rates for the election??
Elections are temporary, the real royal road is to alleviate people's suffering.
(Mr. Powell..... I won't be around for much longer, I'm going to step down.. It won't be my business anymore. Janet Yellen, grandma...I'm old, I can't remember anything. At this moment, one thinks of that person, Greenspan, whom Wall Street both respects and fears. Mr. Greenspan )

MM : Market Maker, a term referring to securities dealers who trade against retail investors.

Today is Friday, stocks have been rising recently, most likely because Market Makers are preparing to take a large number of short option positions. Even though CPI increased on Thursday and new unemployment claims rose, the large cap did not fluctuate significantly. Therefore, even if PPI is announced on Friday, I guess the result will be the same, because Market Makers are preparing to take short option positions.

Here's the key point:
Even if PPI rises on Friday, if the large cap does not react much and drops significantly, it does not mean the issue is over. Usually, there will be a reaction in the following Monday or Tuesday.
Because the maker has sold a lot of long options right now, (NVDA has sold out a lot of long options), it is possible that they will start to eat long options next week.
The algorithm program that only rises and does not fall had already shut down most of it yesterday afternoon.Volatility is about to return.Everyone should be prepared~~
If CPI continues to rise, Xiaobai predicts that the Fed will not cut interest rates in the next two meetings this year!! It may follow the old way of Ge, after cutting two points, it will be maintained for a long period of time.。

Remember how I predicted the weekly trend last week:
"...Before, the highest closing price for the right shoulder was 5228, so this week is likely to close above 5228, but may not exceed 5248. This means there is a possibility of only a 1% increase next week. However, you need to consider the risk of a potential decline. Is it this week? Or next week?"

I don't know how much the weekly SOX line closed this week??

Attention: The SOX did not close above the green support line. (The MM final teaching version's green line), going long, pay more attention. The daily line closed.A false bullish candlestick.Green K, if you don't look carefully, you might really be confused by the MM... There is a possibility of a decline today, but the probability of a large drop of more than 2% is relatively low.

I finally had grilled fish to eat. Haven't had fish for a few days.. This market is so dull..
If the CPI is going to rise for over a year, where will your 10-year US treasury yield be? In the last daydream article on 09/06, I only dared to write 4.5-5%, now it seems: 5%-6%, it's really not a dream. TLT has been praised several times at 99+, don't enter there, around 97, called once... Yesterday TLT at 94.... next, if there's a rebound, you should exit..
The above 18-year-old newbie, writes randomly, no authenticity, completely written in self-fantasy, do not take it seriously. Thank you.