Crude oil falls 4 times in a row due to heightened concerns about China's demand

Crude oil futures fell to a low for the first time in 6 weeks amid a decline in commodities in general.

Equity's chief market analyst Han Tan stated to Market Watch that “crude oil bears (bearish groups) seem to be entering early ahead of the seasonal decline in crude oil prices,” and pointed out that crude oil prices have fallen on average monthly from August to November for the past 5 years.

In the Middle East, movements toward a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have become active, and Prime Minister Netanyahu told the families of the hostages that an agreement for release was close.

According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Canada's crude oil production is almost stable, but the risk from wildfires is increasing.

The Nimex crude oil futures 9 month limit (CL1:COM) was 76.96 dollars, -1.8% compared to the previous month, and the Brent crude oil futures 9 month limit (CO1:COM) was 81.01 dollars, -1.7% from the previous month, and both benchmarks closed at low prices since 6/7.

US diesel futures (HO1:COM) also closed at a low since 6/7, and gasoline futures (XB1:COM) closed at a low since 6/14.

Natural gas futures (NG1: COM) fell for the first time in 4 business days, returned half of the previous day's sharp increase, and ended at 2.187 dollars/mmBTU of -2.8%.

Morgan Stanley analysts said that although the crude oil market is currently tight, Brent prices will fall from the middle to the latter half of the $70 range next year, and there is a high possibility that it will turn into a surplus.

The tight situation will continue for most of the third quarter, but “the equilibrium will return to the fourth quarter when the tailwind of seasonal demand weakens, and both OPEC and non-OPEC supply begin to increase,” the bank wrote.

Morgan Stanley added that OPEC and non-OPEC supply volumes in 2025 are expected to increase by about 2.5 million barrels per day, which greatly exceeds the growth in demand, and refinery operations peaked in August this year and are unlikely to return to that level until 2025/7.