Crude oil prices recorded the biggest rise this year due to a sense of alarm against Israel by Iran

Concerns about Iran's response to the assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran have increased, and crude oil prices have risen sharply since October last year.

Since it was reported that Israel detected preparations for an attack by Iran and the Hezbollah Group and placed strict precautions against the military, WTI temporarily soared above 80 dollars per barrel.

The US Department of Defense dispatched guided missile submarines to the Middle East and instructed the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln Strike Group to quickly sail to the same region.

“Crude oil prices are rising due to intensifying military preparations in the Middle East,” said Claudio Galimberti, director of global market analysis at Listad Energy (as reported by Dow Jones). “This week and next are critical in determining whether further escalations can be avoided and whether the geopolitical risk premium will have a significant impact on crude oil prices.

According to Reuters, Mr. Robert Yoger of Mizuho Securities stated, “We are building up assets one after another, and it gives the impression that if it heats up, there is a possibility that it will become ugly,” and added that if Iranian crude oil is attacked, there is a possibility that the United States will ban exports of Iranian crude oil, and there is a possibility that the supply of 1.5 million barrels per day will be affected.

Nymex's 9-year crude oil (CL1:COM) was 80.06 dollars +4.2% compared to the previous day, which is a significant dollar increase since 10/13, and Brent crude oil (CO1:COM)'s October crude oil (CO1:COM) was 82.30 dollars +3.3% compared to the previous day, which is a significant dollar increase since 11/17.

Also, September Nimex natural gas ended with 2.189 dollars/mmBTU, +2.1% from the previous month, and this also ended with a 5 consecutive rise, which is the longest since January.

OPEC revised its global oil demand growth forecast downward due to China's weakness.

According to the latest monthly oil report, OPEC lowered the forecast for an increase in oil demand in 2024 from the previous 2.25 million barrels/day to 2.11 million barrels/day.

Even with this reduction, OPEC sees this year's oil consumption as a “healthy” 2.1 million barrels/day, with an average increase of 0.1 billion 4.3 million barrels per day.

OPEC also revised its 2025 oil demand forecast slightly downward, and expects the growth to be 1.85 million barrels per day to 1.78 million barrels per day.