Daily Analysis (9/17) Nikkei Average falls with yen appreciation!? But what about the afternoon?
※There is a possibility of a significant fluctuation from here because I am analyzing on a hourly basis. It is being considered as one reference.
Fundamental analysis.
In the Tokyo foreign exchange market in the morning of the 17th, the yen exchange rate has risen. At 10 o'clock, it was 140.62-63 yen per dollar, which was a yen appreciation and a dollar depreciation of 27 yen compared to the previous week before the three-day weekend at 17 o'clock. The Nikkei average stock price, which started with a slight increase, gradually widened its decline.Buy orders were placed on the yen, which is considered a "low-risk currency," in anticipation of deteriorating investor sentiment.Before 10 o'clock, there were voices saying that there was "buying and selling overlap" among the domestic exchange dealers.
In the bond market, the yield curve of medium-term government bonds, which is sensitive to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, has flattened. This suggests that the market expectation of additional rate hikes by the Bank of Japan by the end of the year has receded dramatically as the United States shifts its policy to interest rate cuts. Takayuki Fujiwara, head of the bond investment department and chief fund manager at Resona Asset Management, pointed out that if the United States were to make a significant interest rate cut, it would be a headwind for the Bank of Japan, and the possibility of additional rate hikes in January next year would also be lower.It was also pointed out that if the United States were to make a significant interest rate cut, it would be a headwind for the Bank of Japan, and the possibility of additional rate hikes in January next year would also be lower.
Technical analysis (Rating: 2.25/5)
- Moving Average Line: There has been a consolidation between the 9/13 and 5/50 day moving average lines during the day, but a death cross occurred around 10:00 on 9/17 with the 5/21/50 day moving average lines. However, the decline slowed down in the afternoon (12:30) and then started to rise.By the end of the afternoon session, the candlestick chart was coming up to the 5-day moving average line. (3/5)
-DMI: The MDI rose sharply around 11:00 and soon after, the PDI/MDI/ADX crossed.(Trend reversal)From the afternoon session, there was no trend reversal and the downward trend continued gradually. (1.5/5)
- RSI x MACD: RSI dropped from around 50 to around 40-35 around 10:00. However, it rebounded to around the mid-45s when the afternoon session started. MACD had a death cross at 11:00 and continued to decline afterwards. (2.5/5)
- Historical Volatility: There was a sharp decline starting around 10:00. After that, it remained flat. (2/5)
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
