Interpreting the content of the March FOMC: Maintaining the expectation of three rate cuts within the year to alleviate concerns, favorable for tech stocks, gold, and virtual currencies.

Following the results of the March FOMC, the U.S. stock market on March 20, especially semiconductor and tech stocks, regained momentum and all three benchmark indices closed higher. The crux of the matter is the FOMC content, but there were no major surprises, and even Chairman Powell's speech didn't differ much from the previous FOMC.However, local investors responded positively to the maintenance of the expectation of three rate cuts within the year as indicated in the dot chart, and sought opportunities in risk-on stocks such as semiconductors and regional banks. From this FOMC, we were able to gain some important hints and clues from Chairman Powell's speech and the updated dot chart, so for the time being, especially in line with the scenario anticipated at the beginning of the year, the U.S. stock market in Q2 will generally continue its upward trend.年内3回利下げ見通しの維持で懸念払拭→テック株、金、仮想通貨に有利。Following the maintenance of the expectation of three rate cuts within the year, concerns were alleviated, which is favorable for tech stocks, gold, and virtual currencies.I am watching.

Clues from Chairman Powell's speech and dot chart:
1) In the dot chart, the average interest rate outlook at the end of 2024, 2025, and 2026 by FOMC members is 4.6%, 3.9%, and 3.1% respectively. This indicates an increase in 2025 and 2026 compared to the expectations at the end of December last year, which were 4.6%, 3.6%, and 3.2%. However,There is no significant change in the overall dot chart (compared to the end of December), and the maintenance of the expectation for three interest rate cuts within the year provides a great sense of reassurance to the market.2) Chairman Powell emphasized the need to gather further statistics and data to demonstrate the progress towards the target inflation rate of 2% and gain confidence in inflation control. He also mentioned in the speech that

the fight against inflation is still ongoing and that more evidence and conviction are needed in the progress towards the decrease in inflation. Additionally,he changed his view on employment growth from "weakened" in the previous FOMC to "strong".However, Chairman Powell stated that even if the employment statistics remain robust, it will not impact the initiation of interest rate cuts within the year.The policy of starting interest rate cuts within the year was once again indicated.。

3) It should be noted that there was already a statement that the pace of QT (reducing asset balances) has been "near" a slight surprise. Chairman PowellIt is believed that the US FED has become aware of the rise in credit risk within the United States, in order to avoid the emergence of confusion due to a shortage of liquidity, following the resurgence of risks in regional banks.The evidence. In other words, the liquidity situation in the US capital markets is expected to ease in the second half of the year.

The FED has made some minor adjustments (leaning towards hawks) to its outlook for next year, but it seems that the stance and direction are already becoming clear towards a slightly dovish stance for the second half of the year. For the time being,There is a high likelihood that high-tech stocks, including semiconductors, will continue to dominate, as well as favorable conditions for virtual currencies such as gold prices and Bitcoin, due to the progress of a weak U.S. dollar (against currencies other than the yen).It is considered to be advantageous.