Deciphering the March FOMC details: dispelling concerns by maintaining the forecast for 3 interest rate cuts by the end of the year → advantageous for tech stocks, gold, and virtual currency

In response to the FOMC results for March, the US stock market on the 20th, especially semiconductor tech stocks, regained vitality again, and all of the benchmark 3 indices ended with continued growth. Liver'sAs for the FOMC content, there wasn't much of a surprise, and even Chairman Powell's speech didn't change much from the previous FOMC. However, local investors liked the maintenance of the forecast of 3 interest rate cuts within the year shown on the dot chart, and searched for risk-on stocks such as semiconductors and regional banks. Since we were able to obtain some important hints and clues from Chairman Powell's speech and the updated dot chart at the FOMC this time, for the time being, above all,The US stock market generally continued its upward trend in Q2 according to the scenario anticipated at the beginning of the yearI'm looking forward to doing that.

Clues from Chairman Powell's speech and dot chart:
1) On the dot chart, the average interest rate forecasts by FOMC members as of the end of 2024, 25, and 26 are 4.6%, 3.9%, and 3.1%, respectively, and increases in 25 and 26 were seen compared to 4.6%, 3.6%, and 3.2% forecasts as of the end of December last year. However,There were no major changes in the dot chart as a whole (compared to the end of December), and above all, maintaining the forecast of interest rate cuts 3 times within the year gave the market a great sense of securityI'll give it.

2) Chairman Powell demonstrated with further statistics and data as inflation progresses down to 2%, which is the target, and emphasized that the fight against inflation is still ongoing because it is necessary to gain confidence in controlling inflation. Also, in speechesThe view on employment growth changed from “slowdown” in the previous FOMC to “strong”. However, even if Chairman Powell keeps employment statistics steady, it will not affect the start of interest rate cuts within the year,The policy of starting interest rate cuts by the end of the year was shown again。

3) Note that I was slightly surprised by the statement that the pace of QT (reduction in asset balance) was already “close.” Who is Chairman PowellIt seems that they want to avoid the occurrence of confusion associated with lack of liquidity in response to a rekindled risk in regional banks, and the US FED begins to be aware of rising credit risk within the USIt's the rationale. In other words, the liquidity situation in the US capital market will ease toward the second half.

Although the FED has made some minor adjustments (towards hawks) on the outlook for next year and beyond, it seems that the stance and direction slightly closer to the pigeon faction is already becoming clear for the latter half of the year. For the time being,There is a possibility that high-tech stocks, starting with semiconductors, will continue to maintain their dominance, and the depreciation of the US dollar (currency other than yen) progresses, which is advantageous for virtual currencies such as gold prices and BitcoinSeems like that.