Daily Analysis (9/12) The market started with a decline... What is the closing price?
※There is a possibility of a significant fluctuation from here because I am analyzing on a hourly basis. It is being considered as one reference.
Fundamental analysis.
- In the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, the growth of the core index excluding food and energy exceeded market expectations, so it started with selling pressure. However, buying came in, mainly in large-cap tech stocks, and the market turned upward. In the U.S. bond market, yields rose, particularly in shorter-term government bonds, amid expectations that the FOMC would gradually cut interest rates. In the interest rate swap market, a 0.25-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting next week has already been fully priced in.
- In the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, the growth of the core index excluding food and energy exceeded market expectations, so it started with selling pressure. However, buying came in, mainly in large-cap tech stocks, and the market turned upward. In the U.S. bond market, yields rose, particularly in shorter-term government bonds, amid expectations that the FOMC would gradually cut interest rates. In the interest rate swap market, a 0.25-point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting next week has already been fully priced in.
Juan spoke at the Goldman Sachs Group's technology conference held in San Francisco on the 11th. Juan pointed out that there is strong demand for Nvidia's next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor, 'Blackwell'. The company outsources the physical production of hardware to external parties, and the suppliers are making maximum efforts to keep up with the demand, according to Juan. On the 11th, Nvidia closed at 116.91 dollars, up 8.1% in the U.S. stock market, marking a significant increase after six weeks.
Technical Analysis (Rating: 3.3/5) *Time is stated in U.S. time
Chart Patterns (Analyzed on a monthly basis for comprehensive assessment)Significantly broke through the descending resistance line that has been forming since July. In the future,there is potential for the descending resistance line to become a support line.However, there is a need to take a more panoramic view. (3.5/5)
Moving Average Line x Volume Moving Average Line Around 13:00 on 9/10, a golden cross of the 5/21-day moving average line occurred, and the candlestick temporarily rose above the 5-day moving average line. Shortly after the market opened on 9/11, a long bearish candlestick formed and fell below the moving average line. However,After 11:30it rose sharply, and around 14:30, a golden cross of the 5/50-day moving average line occurred. In addition, the volume moving average line saw a golden cross between the short-term and medium-term moving averages at 11:30.→ Did the increase in yield occur after 11:00 due to reports of Mr. Juan's speech and the rise in short-term government bonds as the main factor? (4/5)
・DMI:Around 13:00 on 9/10, a cross occurred with PDI/MDI/ADX indicating a short-term trend reversal. After that, 9/11 Around 11:30Golden cross occurred with MDI/ADX, accelerating short-term uptrend. After a brief pause in the rise, a dead cross occurred with MDI/ADX.Although there is a possibility of short-term profit-selling, it is good to be positive (3.5/5).
RSI x MACD:RSI rose from 37 to 47 around 13:00 on 9/10. After that, it sharply rose to the range of 50-70.It fluctuates from being oversold to being overbought.MACD experienced a golden cross at 10:30 on 9/9. After that, it steadily moved upwards.Although there is a possibility of short-term profit-selling (3/5).
Historical volatility: A sharp drop in historical volatility around 14:30 on 9/10. It then remained at low levels. What will happen next?Is this a sign of even greater price movement volatility in the future? (2.5/5)
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codeOZ(家長) : It's inevitable that what has happened has happened, but I'm concerned that there is a significant amount of short sell positions piled up only in L as the price continues to rise. Depending on the timing, it could either continue to rise or reach a plateau.
ぴるさん OP codeOZ(家長) : The direction seems to be determined by how the market reacts initially.