Deduction
Yesterday, I deduced the trend of TLT. There are four paths:
1. After another week or so of trading sideways, you'll be able to stand on MA20 while lying down. There is no need to make up for today's gap; time is replaced by space. This is a bullish signal.
2. After a second bottoming, it broke through the neck line and was bullish. Assuming that the gap is closed and the bottom is explored twice, today's price is likely to be the neck line.
3. Continue to attack, jump from place to place, and break through MA20 directly upward.
4. The volume fell below 84 and was bearish. The probability is small.
2. After a second bottoming, it broke through the neck line and was bullish. Assuming that the gap is closed and the bottom is explored twice, today's price is likely to be the neck line.
3. Continue to attack, jump from place to place, and break through MA20 directly upward.
4. The volume fell below 84 and was bearish. The probability is small.
The gap has now been filled. Let's say 1 and 3 don't hold up anymore. So there are only two possibilities left:
1. It bottomed out around 84-85 two or more times, and rebounded after stopping the decline. Yesterday's price was the neck line. The volume breaks through the neck line, forms the bottom of the head or shoulder, and then becomes bullish. Currently seeing around 100 for the time being. The probability is high. Judging from today's CPI data, I think inflation has begun to ease. It is unlikely that it will go to the bottom more than once.
2. It effectively fell below 84. Bearish, less likely.
Trading strategies to consider
A steady entry on the right side should wait for volume breakthroughs. The entry price is 88-89, and there is room for 10% to 12%. If it falls below the neck line (yesterday's closing price), the loss will stop.
The aggressive left side falls to around 85. If there is volume and bottom shape, it enters the market. Entering the market at 86-87, there is about 15% room. The risk is to fall below 84 and stop loss immediately.
However, if you fall below 84, you have to walk the bottom of your head (your left shoulder is 84; your head needs to be lower than your left shoulder), then you can come back later, although this is unlikely.
The strategy of fighting left and right against each other is actually more aggressive. From the perspective of shorting, if it falls to around 84, shorting will stop, and you should buy at 84-85.
My current strategy is quite confusing, so let's take a look at it step by step.
Regarding housing inflation, the CPI data is clearly lagging behind. I am sensitive to housing prices and rent because I invest in real estate. At least where I've invested, it's hard to rent a house, and rents are already falling. I don't see any investment value at the moment. Once young people can't afford the high rent, they will choose to switch to a cheaper place, share a flat, or simply stay with their parents. Houses with reasonable housing prices still sell very well, but no one cares about those that have to be sold at a high place. Real estate has begun to return to rationality. As to whether it will plummet, I still can't see; it's just that irrational premium snapping up is no longer possible.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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高贵的阿德莱德 OP : The gap seems to be nearly lost; it hasn't been fully covered. Didn't even notice just now![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
So let's keep watching today's trends.
Tesla 1st : Thank you for your analysis and sharing, I prefer left-hand trading.
mubbiiee : Seems like today's treasury bond auction has waned...
高贵的阿德莱德 OP mubbiiee : So it is. I'm still surprised that this CPI figure hasn't dropped that much. With such high interest rates, we still have to issue debt to fill the hole in Biden's economics. I don't know how many mythical beasts are running around in Grandma Yellen's heart![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
mubbiiee 高贵的阿德莱德 OP : The stock index is still quite strong; compared to TLT, this drop is very small. Coconut milk actually still has many options. It is possible to issue more short-term debt, but the risk of doing so is the same as releasing strategic crude oil; it brightens the bottom line. Once you don't have fun, the cost of issuing bonds later will get out of control.