Democratic National Convention: A Preview of Harris’s Economic Policies and Their Industry Impact | Moomoo research

As the Democratic National Convention (DNC) approaches, Vice President Harris holds a slight lead over Trump in the polls. This not only signals an impending political storm but could also have far-reaching impacts on various industries. Harris's economic policies, making their debut, focus on the middle class and pricing issues, introducing a series of measures aimed at boosting the economy. These include increasing housing supply, providing tax relief, and reducing healthcare costs—measures expected to significantly impact the real estate, household consumption, and healthcare sectors. As Harris leads in key swing states, whether her economic policies can win over centrist voters will be crucial in this election.

Democratic National Convention
The DNC commence on Monday, August 19, Eastern Time, and run for four days until Thursday. While the complete agenda has not been released, it is expected that presidential candidate Harris, her running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, current President Biden, former Presidents Obama and Bill Clinton, 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton, and former First Lady Michelle Obama will speak during the evening events.

Harris vs. Trump Poll Comparison
According to the latest polling data, Vice President Harris holds a slight lead over Trump. Data compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a 46.4% approval rating compared to Trump's 43.7%. Results vary across different sources, with mainstream media polls—except for Fox News and CNBC—showing Harris in the lead. Betting odds also reflect this trend, with Harris's odds significantly improving and surpassing Trump's since Biden's withdrawal, currently standing at 59% versus Trump's 45%.

Harris's Support in Key Swing States
From an electoral vote perspective, the Republican stronghold has 166 votes, while the Democratic stronghold has 190 votes, giving Democrats a natural advantage. Including "light red" and "light blue" states, Republicans and Democrats can respectively secure 193 and 228 votes. Seven key battleground states will decide the final outcome. Currently, Harris leads in states like Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. If Harris can maintain the Democratic stronghold and win Michigan, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, she would secure 272 electoral votes, thereby winning the election.

Harris’s Economic Policies and Industry Impact
In her August 16 speech, Harris outlined her economic policies, focusing on the middle class and pricing issues. She proposed the following key measures:

Building 3 million new homes and rental units over four years and providing $25,000 in assistance to first-time homebuyers. This is positive news for the real estate sector.

Offering up to $6,000 in tax relief for families with newborns, benefiting the household consumption sector.

Addressing inflation as a result of misconduct by certain companies, particularly in the food industry, and planning punitive measures for crisis exploitation and rule violations, which could negatively impact the food processing and retail sectors.

Lowering healthcare costs, expanding the insulin copay cap beyond the elderly, and working with state governments to exclude medical debt from credit ratings. This is a positive signal for the healthcare sector.

Importance of Economic Issues
Economic issues are crucial for garnering support from centrist voters. Among all issues, inflation and employment are the most concerning for Americans, with 77% and 71% respectively deeming these issues very important. While economic growth during Biden's tenure has been higher than during Trump's, public dissatisfaction with the current economic situation persists due to slowed income growth and rising inflation. According to AP-NORC polling data, 45% of voters trust Trump on economic issues compared to 38% for Harris.
Thus, Harris is attempting to win voter confidence in her economic management capabilities by proposing robust economic policies. More details on her economic policies are expected during the DNC, with the Democratic campaign platform likely to be released afterward.