Depending on NVIDIA's financial results, there is also a possibility that US stocks will drive Japanese stocks
Looking back on last week
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's statement took precedence over a sense of security
Last week's $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ It rose 301.60 yen (+ 0.79%) to 38364.27 yen per week. The rise in emerging markets was conspicuous, with the growth market index +4.63% and the growth market 250 index +5.16%. The Nikkei Average, which recovered to the 38,000 yen level, returned to the level since 8/1 before the crash, but sales declined, as trading prices on the Prime Market fell below the 4 trillion yen level. Since the volume in the 38,000 yen range was overwhelmingly high in terms of trading volume by investment price, the upper value of the Nikkei Average became heavy. In the closing review of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda on the 23rd, which the market was paying attention to, it was stated that “the financial market will continue to be in an unstable situation” and “for the time being, we will closely monitor that trend with an extremely high sense of tension,” and since it was explained that “there is no difference (with Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida's monetary policy ideas),” a sense of security prevails in both the exchange market and the stock market. The Nikkei Average closed at 38300 yen over the weekend.
This week's outlook
There is also a possibility that the Nikkei Average will break through the 75-day line on the 29th
US time 28th (Tokyo time before dawn on 29th), major semiconductor companies $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Financial results for the fiscal year ending 24/5/7 will be announced. When financial results were announced in February, there were strong financial results that exceeded market expectations, $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$ It became a stimulant for semiconductor stocks, etc., and the Nikkei Average hit the highest value in history during the bubble on 2/22. It was the driving force behind the historic rise. After NVIDIA hit an all-time high (140.76 dollars based on trading hours) in June, the downward trend was intensifying, but the low price of 90.69 dollars during trading hours on 8/5 rebounded to the bottom. The price has now returned to the 130 dollar level, and it seems that expectations for financial results announcements are growing. Since it is a stock that has a very large influence on valuable semiconductor stocks, there is also a possibility that the Nikkei Average will exceed the 75-day moving average located in the 38600 yen range on 8/29. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Powell stated at the Jackson Hole meeting that “the time has come to adjust policies.” The US market received this statement, and the three major indices rose more than 1% from the previous day, and US interest rates declined. The exchange rate is 1 dollar to 143 yen, and the trend of yen depreciation is intensifying, and Japanese stocks are in a situation where it is somewhat difficult to handle in response to an external environment where “US stocks are strong but yen appreciates.” Will the fight continue at the 38,000 yen level until NVIDIA's financial results are announced?
There is still a sense of alarm that the US economy will enter a recession
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not specify the range of interest rate cuts at the September meeting, but he also said “we will do whatever we can to support a strong labor market.” In other words, if the employment-related economic indicators announced in early September fall far below market expectations, it is quite possible to implement a 0.50% interest rate cut. The market has already factored in implementing interest rate cuts 3 times (0.75%) within the year, but if interest rate cuts of 0.50% are implemented at once, there is a possibility that the market will be keenly aware of entering a recession (hard landing), similar to the beginning of August. If the three major US indices update their all-time highs, it will be a stimulus for Japanese stocks, but it is likely that the Tokyo market will be at the mercy of the US market from this week to next week due to the fact that soft landing expectations and hard landing concerns intersect, and NVIDIA is preparing financial results, etc.
This week's featured stocks
As a company that continues to increase dividends for 25 consecutive terms, I think it is easy to buy with the aim of September mid-term dividends. Net income for the fiscal year ending 25/3 is expected to be at a record high, which is interesting even from a long-term investment perspective.
In the future, it is assumed that the exchange rate will strengthen the yen appreciation trend due to speculation that interest rate differences between Japan and the US will shrink. I would like to pay attention to the company, which is a merit stock of the appreciation of the yen. The current upward trend is strengthening, and I think the trend is strong.
$Integral (5842.JP)$Groth
It is attracting attention as one of the main stocks in the growth market, which is strengthening its return trend. By filling in the empty space from 8/1 to 5, I would like to look forward to a rebound that was conscious of the high price level since listing reached at the end of June.
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hiking : It's unfortunate that there is an age limit, can't we somehow extend it by 5.6 years?