Will the September FOMC cut interest rates by 0.25%?
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ The result of the US employment statistics
利下げ幅の最終判断は以下の指標次第
→11日の米CPI
→17日の米小売売上高
※ここは折り込まれ過ぎからの
It is insufficient to suggest a 0.5% rate cut
● Unemployment rate
Previous: 4.3%
Financial estimates: 4.2%.
Results: 4.2%.
Non-farm payroll (NFP) employment.
Previous: 0.089 million people (downward revision from 0.114 million people).
Estimates: 0.16 million people.
Results: 0.142 million people.
Slight improvement in unemployment rate.
NFP slightly underperformed expectations.
With this, a 0.5% rate cut is
I think it's questionable whether it's really necessary 🤔
According to Fed Watch
0.25% rate cut -> 70%
0.5% rate cut -> 30%
is priced in!
Also, the statements of FRB members after the release of US employment statistics
Also the statements of the FRB members
利下げ幅は明言せず● Unemployment rate
Previous: 4.3%
Financial estimates: 4.2%.
Results: 4.2%.
Non-farm payroll (NFP) employment.
Previous: 0.089 million people (downward revision from 0.114 million people).
Estimates: 0.16 million people.
Results: 0.142 million people.
Slight improvement in unemployment rate.
NFP slightly underperformed expectations.
With this, a 0.5% rate cut is
I think it's questionable whether it's really necessary 🤔
According to Fed Watch
0.25% rate cut -> 70%
0.5% rate cut -> 30%
is priced in!
Also, the statements of FRB members after the release of US employment statistics
Also the statements of the FRB members
利下げ幅の最終判断は以下の指標次第
→11日の米CPI
→17日の米小売売上高
※ここは折り込まれ過ぎからの
景気強い指標結果で多少下落の
ボックスチャートになると思います😅
ただ、米景気が下降していくのは時間の問題でスピードは私も分からないので我慢中
ただ、米景気が下降していくのは時間の問題でスピードは私も分からないので我慢中
The US employment statistics also had a downward revision this time.
For the previously announced data,
there was a downward revision.
- For the data announced last month,
0.114 million people → 0.089 million people (-0.025 million people)
- For the data announced two months ago,
0.179 million people → 0.118 million people (-0.061 million people)
In total, there were 0.086 million fewer people.
Aside from the comment about making corrections every time...![]()
For the previously announced data,
there was a downward revision.
- For the data announced last month,
0.114 million people → 0.089 million people (-0.025 million people)
- For the data announced two months ago,
0.179 million people → 0.118 million people (-0.061 million people)
In total, there were 0.086 million fewer people.
Aside from the comment about making corrections every time...
As for the NFP numbers...
I believe this is a phase of decline!
Although there are moments of short-term increase...
In the medium to long term, the rate of increase will decrease.
This is the aftermath of high interest rates.
Although there are moments of short-term increase...
In the medium to long term, the rate of increase will decrease.
This is the aftermath of high interest rates.
Rather than worrying about an upward trend in inflation rates...
It is not a phase to be cautious about.
More than necessary in the labor market
Phase to prevent deterioration
↓
Many FRB members, including Mr. Powell, are mentioning it.
Now is the phase of interest rate cuts.
Before and after the first interest rate cut
U.S. stocks are easily falling further
It is not a phase to be cautious about.
More than necessary in the labor market
Phase to prevent deterioration
↓
Many FRB members, including Mr. Powell, are mentioning it.
Now is the phase of interest rate cuts.
Before and after the first interest rate cut
U.S. stocks are easily falling further
September is also anomalous
US stocks are easy to decline.
US stocks are easy to decline.
In this trend, it is slowly transitioning from stocks to bonds.
It is also an easy situation to invest in.
First, I am observing this trend and waiting for it to become a comfortable chart.
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今は米国債一本です！
とりあえず1億目指してます😊
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Zakiyamax : It's wonderful!
Not only the stock market decline due to concerns about the economic downturn, but also the perspective of the stock market falling due to the anomaly in September should definitely be taken into account.
あきんちょ : Thank you for your reference! Do you think TMF will rise to around 100 by the time the rate cut is completed?
投資家 t9m OP あきんちょ : My target is around $130, and if possible, I'm aiming for $140! The target may change slightly depending on the extent of the economic downturn, but I will hold onto my bond investment until the opportune time to shift to the next stock investment. So I consider that timing as the selling point.
あきんちょ : I don't understand the news very well, but if the interest rate cut this week is 50 basis points, is it an opportunity for TMF?
投資家 t9m OP あきんちょ : Certainly! I think bonds will go up because a sudden interest rate cut will worsen the economy
However, why is the interest rate cut starting? And what happened to bonds in the past when interest rate cuts occurred? It is important to understand. Recently, it will fluctuate greatly due to market expectations and indicator values 
It is really impossible for anyone to predict the short term! Let's take a slightly longer time frame and watch carefully because it is often difficult to invest in other areas when bonds go up! 
Things are getting exciting after TLT surpasses $104 
I still think it will fluctuate
And I think it's still better to look at the TLT chart
投資家 t9m OP あきんちょ : I'm sorry
As additional information, a 0.5% interest rate cut is an opportunity for TMF. Recession has typically occurred after a rate cut by the FRB in the past. However, it is uncertain what will happen this time, but considering the probability, I think bonds will rise significantly. I apologize for the long message
あきんちょ : Thank you for your response! I'm happy to receive specific guidance on the areas I need to study
. I want to keep an eye on the market every day with a long-term perspective and TLT in mind 
.
あきんちょ 投資家 t9m OP : Thank you for your detailed supplement
I will refer to it
Thank you for your comments
投資家 t9m OP あきんちょ : I am also not good at it, so I am thinking of investing in a safer and more profitable way with caution. And I have been saying a lot of "what if" things
So apart from rsp, I want to increase the assets I have saved with leverage and then transfer them to TMF. I'm currently holding onto it! It was tough to transition too quickly, but I want to create an environment where I can invest the surplus in America and India and sleep and wait for it 
I look forward to exchanging information with you
あきんちょ : You've had a variety of experiences. But it's very exciting to choose what to invest in america and india with the earnings from TMF. I'd love to hear more about that story
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