$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS.US)$$...

普通じゃないエビ commented on a stock · Oct 23, 2024 16:23

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x Shares ETF (SOXS.US)$ $Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$

I have entered short positions for SOXS and NVDA at yesterday's regular trading hours at the stock exchange.

Considering the outlook until the end of the year, first of all.

SPX daily chart.

Here is the daily chart of S&P500, and a clear three-day rally seems to be confirmed ✨.

So, considering the similarity between the recent chart patterns and the top area of this three-day rally, I think there might be a correction.

With the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on the 31st, Unemployment Rate on the 1st, Elections on the 5th, FOMC on the 6th-7th, and amidst heavy tech-centered earnings and news, it seems like adjustments might align with these events.

So, while it may seem like a good idea to short S&P500, in terms of profit margin, following the trend from ASML, I thought SOXS might offer a better profit margin 💡.

By the way, regarding the presidential election, there seems to be an assumption of Trump's victory being priced in, but I personally do not see it at all 💦.

Financial stocks are being heavily bought, is this because it is expected that high interest rates will continue? Wasn't Trump supposed to lower interest rates a lot?

And the defense-related sector is also seeing selling alongside earnings announcements.

Cryptocurrencies like BTC are starting to show signs of a decline in their uptrend.

I wonder what makes people see Trump as advantageous, maybe the policies?

The market is starting to factor in not Trump's election, but the absence of a rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, leaning towards a soft landing without a landing

Of course, I am also considering stocks to invest in if Trump is elected, as in the case of Harris, but I have no intention of making a final decision 💦

However, whether it's the presidential election, before the explosive rise of sectors like cryptocurrencies, defense, tech, health care, etc., I believe there will be selling first 💦

Looking beyond that, I am mainly considering scenarios for a year-end rally.

Regardless of whether Trump wins and there is a surge in BTC, or Harris wins and there is a focus on health care, I do not trust the performance during the election period at all.

Trump's NFT projects may be anticipated, but hasn't the SEC approved them? If they are criticized after his presidency, I believe cryptocurrencies will be significantly sold off.

If you were to make year-end financial estimates...

S&P 500 around 6000-6100, BTC around 78000-79500, right...?

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J_M_RIN : What dominates the market now is what will happen to financial results...? I think it's mostly Incidentally, there are probably people who are concerned about elections, but I'm not particularly concerned. If the soft or no landing path continues to be shown, the results will follow, so I think that no matter who becomes president in the end, the index will rise steadily along with economic growth sooner or later

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普通じゃないエビ

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