$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ ...
$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ isn't it really interesting that the past couple of weeks you hear about how money is leaving technology it's rotating into other areas and it has been it's been a source of funds. one of the primary sectors that money has been flowing into non-stop are the financials. and what happens today Goldman Sachs warns of a bad third quarter and banking requirements under basil a new proposal comes out where the largest banks are going to be required to hold more in reserves the more they hold the less they lend the less they make pretty straightforward regional Banks also will be affected but at a lower rate and anybody in the lending business is also coming under pressure. so what's rallying tech stocks.. I guess in a couple short weeks will hear all these bobbleheads on TV pounding the table again on tech stocks that it's the place to be and you want to own them..
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Flowerhill : Don’t take me wrong, I am stuck here… and I am an amateur investor, but what will be the next big news in Semiconductor field to bring SOXL up? I don’t see anything momentum expected ahead. What is your view?
10baggerbamm OP Flowerhill : so that's a very good question let me answer this way sectors rotate and sometimes it takes more time to heal wounds than others.
if you roll the clock back March a year ago you had silicon valley Bank fail all of the insurance companies collapsed regional Banks collapsed the largest banks out there Goldman Sachs Morgan Bank of America they all shit to bed.
and that's where you need to have the balls to step up and buy. the reality is you're never going to hit the bottom if you do it's pure luck so you may think you're at a near-term bottom and may go 10 15% lower as a basket or as a group or as an individual company but you have to look beyond the short-term problems. fast forward a year and a half or so and they all put in new all-time highs many of them and others were at multi-year highs.
10baggerbamm OP Flowerhill : pt 2
so if you look at soxl and what comprises the basket all of the soldiers in the basket have been shot that's the only way to say it I hate Intel I can't stand gelsinger I think he's a complete failure sadly that is representative of a very small percent in this portfolio you go to the top of the list and you know the names well every one of these soldiers on the battlefield has been shot they've all been marked down they've all have come down. so what will be the catalyst to cause them to go up well number one today you have Morgan Stanley coming out with weaker than expected guidance along with Goldman Sachs so the darling gem banking sector is cracking right now and that money is going to look to go someplace. what's going to make Nvidia rise number one it's under weighted in institutional money in managed portfolios mutual funds pension plans it was in every single one it's now under weighted and that's a good thing. I think and I said this before maybe 20 or 30% of the investors that owned Nvidia are tainted they will not come back they're pissed off they've lost money because it fell so freaking fast so that was representative of a lot of the by the dip mentality it's gone for now anyways.
10baggerbamm OP Flowerhill : pt 3
you have Jensen selling 14,000 shares a day and coincidentally when he started selling the stock began declining what does it mean you can read into it what you want to think. will Nvidia rise between now and the end of the year absolutely it probably will go back to 118 120, 122 somewhere in there I don't know I'm just throwing a number out picking it out of my ass. I don't believe that we will see another major Gap up until the end of the first quarter next year because my bet is if you go back and look at what Jensen said earlier this year in his guidance he was saying that fourth quarter was going to be 12 to 15 billion Blackwell shipped.. it's now a couple of billion what's a couple two three?
10baggerbamm OP Flowerhill : pt 4
, with all of the orders that they had anticipated shipping in Q4 will now come out in q1 plus everything that was expected. so what will cause this basket soxl to have its euphoric rise again I think it's going to be the numbers from Nvidia at the end of the first quarter so we're talking April that's when they would release their first quarter. and I think that's what's going to cause the AI freight train to catapult to the next level.
there's a lot of pessimism growing on Nvidia because you have this company called cerebus that has tens of millions of orders right now for fourth quarter and they work with Taiwan semi their private they're back by everybody and their chips are 20 fold faster than Nvidia they don't compete at the high end they destroy them at the low end.. but I believe that what Nvidia should have shipped in Q4 will now all be shipped in q1 plus everything that will be demanded by the hyperscalers The sovereign Nations and every other company that's going to be budgeting and spending for the new year to line up to get the Blackwell chips. so it's my gut feeling that q1 will blow the numbers out of the ballpark higher revenues than the whisper higher earnings than the whisper and the guidance it will blow the guidance away because I believe that they're going to play ketchup up not mustard they'll play catch up
10baggerbamm OP Flowerhill : so do I think we can get back into the low 40s again before the end of the year yes I do do I think we're going to see $70 plus absolutely not I don't think we'll see 60s I don't think we will see 50s on this basket I wish I'm wrong I hope I'm wrong but I don't believe that to be the case.. I think that's where time needs to heal wounds you need to have proof capex is benefiting these large companies and that will get rid of all these worry warts these naysayers that hate Nvidia that never owned it from day one then miss the rally the first time that will not buy at this time because they think they're vindicated they think the AI bubble has popped they think it's another Cisco you know the story you hear it everyday
10baggerbamm OP Flowerhill : so I think come the end of first quarter I believe it's going to be the days of yesteryear for NVIDIA wherever it's priced prior to earnings you're going to see a $20- $25 Gap up on earnings.
because other countries will be buying other companies will be buying outside of the four giant hyperscalers that represent half of their revenue you will see proof of positive returns for the investment from multiple companies and I think that will start the next wave of investing where everybody is going to want to jump in again and buy every dip and pushes this basket through the seventies into the '80s which I believe will be sometime next year
10baggerbamm OP Flowerhill : of course I'm a very optimistic person I'm sure you can find some group of people on this forum that will say I don't know what the hell I'm talking about I'm an idiot I'm dead wrong but at the end of the day it's your money you earned it you have to figure out where you want to invest it.
ETONA : 1 question for tons of answer![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
10baggerbamm OP ETONA : sometimes things are not as easy as saying yes or no and you have to understand what's happening throughout the markets to be able to comment on something intelligently you have to be able to explain things to people at all levels so that they can comprehend it so it's just not will this go up yes oh okay I'm going to buy it you need to understand the risk parameters I need you to understand why someone is saying something because too many people jump and buy because somebody says yeah buy it it's going to go up you're flipping a coin at that point at least have an understanding for the reasoning behind it so that you can make a rational decision after all it's your money you earned it you should invest it prudently
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