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KULR Technology
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$Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA.US)$ what do you ...
$Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA.US)$ what do you see? tell you what I see I see an index that every time it touches that yellow line that upper Bollinger band, it's reversed. I hear every bobblehead talking on TV hell it's a small cap breakout it's different this time interest rates are going down and benefits small caps I get to refinance their debt I've heard over and over just like a hamster on a wheel going round and round.
right now all that's happening is a margin expansion that's it, they're getting more and more expensive. so far 75 basis point cut does not make money easier for these companies to borrow number one it does not permit them to refinance their 13 14% interest rate debt that they have at a significantly lower level and save money 75 basis points is nothing in the big picture. it certainly does not translate into higher profits for the few companies that are able to refinance and get that exact reduction in their debt.. you need to see about 250 basis points that's 2.5% reduction that means next year second half best case scenario assuming that word assuming that the Trump tariffs don't create an inflationary problem and change the direction of the feds and game goal which is to cut rates right now it's about 2.5%.
so what do I think is going to happen I think this ETF and the Russell's going to sell off again I think it'll approach that purple line which is the 20-day moving average..
Tom Lee was saying a 40% rally and he's sitting out for three plus month till the end of the year 40% rally and small caps. what that means is this ETF would go up 120%. this ETF you can go back and look was right around $35 when he first came out and said he sees a 40% rally. so you're talking about $100 ETF.. and I do not see that happening at all so I'm going to stick with the fact that it's overbought right now and it's going to rotate lower in the near future on profit taking.
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37+ yrs in the trenches, raised 100mil for start ups, syndicate ipo's, yrs on trading desk mkt maker.
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Kim10 : what's your prediction for the next fed decision I think powell will maintain
10baggerbamm OP Kim10 : I don't know if I say he's going to cut and he doesn't cut I'm wrong if I say he doesn't cut any cuts I'm wrong. the fact of the matter is if you look at the 10-year treasury the direction that it moves the marketing anticipates what's going to happen and that's where mortgage rates are priced off of not the Fed so the future for the real estate industry the future for the publicly traded mortgage companies like rocket mortgage and a few others are more contingent upon where the 10-year treasury is trading then if the FED raises rates or cuts rates. I think he'll cut because he said he would.
the real question is come January 20th is Trump going to force chairman Powell out? legally pal was appointed and he can carry out his term till 26 however if he has violated his oath then he can be tossed out. if Congress the house the Senate makes a new law and it's past and says that the president at any point in time can appoint a new chairman of the Federal reserve.. well then he is going to be out very quickly. and I think if Trump is able to appoint Larry kudlow somebody like that who is a supply side economist not a Keynesian if you don't know the difference buy a book econ 101 so you understand. I think that has a far more market-friendly Outlook. so will he cut rates I think he will a quarter Will the Market rally who the hell knows probably not because it's sold off each time so far.. what history has taught us is buy the dip and it works until it doesn't work.