Don't talk about market prices by prioritizing supply and demand!
When you actually trade,Supply and demandHow much importance do you place on it?
As the title says spoiler.If you talk about market prices based only on supply and demand, you'll die. However,Investors who don't look at supply and demand or disdain them also can't winIt is a characteristic.
In short, it's justSupply and demand are secondary, but it is necessary to look at the market price after having that information and knowledgeIt's also an indescribable opponent.
Let's take a look at the specifics.
Is it the Nikkei averageThe supply and demand for Japanese stocks is very bad nowIt is.
after all,Remaining credit buybacks are 5 trillion yenApproaching the level for the first time in 17 years.The most common situation in the past 20 yearsThat's it. Credit purchases basically have to be settled in a maximum of 6 months,Overstock is a sales factor in the near futureIt is.
after all,Remaining credit buybacks are 5 trillion yenApproaching the level for the first time in 17 years.The most common situation in the past 20 yearsThat's it. Credit purchases basically have to be settled in a maximum of 6 months,Overstock is a sales factor in the near futureIt is.
This is the largest scale in the last 20 years, and it is clearly very common because the level of the Nikkei Average has reached 40,000 yen and the level of the stock price itself is high.
As of last week in total for 2 cities4,911.7 billion yen. Unbought or unsold6.45 times even with a credit ratioThere are also, so no matter how high the Nikkei average level is, there are abnormally many unbought items.
furtherInstitutional investors' arbitrage balance is also at the 2.4 trillion yen levelSo, this is also very much when it exceeds 2 trillion yen. Even when stock price levels are taken into account, 2.5 trillion yen has remained at the ceiling level in the past 20 years.
If there are so many leftovers and there are so many, of course supply and demand are bad,”If stocks go up, return sales will come out and the upper price will be heavyIt will be judged as”.
This judgment is correct,It is very important to invest and trade after knowing this factIt is.
But when this goes too far”Supply-demand biasIt became”,Talk about market prices based only on supply and demandIt's going to be like this.
But when this goes too far”Supply-demand biasIt became”,Talk about market prices based only on supply and demandIt's going to be like this.
There are quite a few investment YouTubers who mainly explain futures, of this type. And many investment YouTubers of this type struggled during the 2023 Buffett Rally, and haven't updated their channels since then.
Supply and demand are important, but they are only secondary indicatorsIt is.
So what's the main one?
certainlychartsThat's it. particularlyChart signs such as the direction of medium- and long-term charts, range breaks, and the emergence of trendsis important.
certainlychartsThat's it. particularlyChart signs such as the direction of medium- and long-term charts, range breaks, and the emergence of trendsis important.
Take the Nikkei Average, for example. This is the futures chart MACD Mk2 as of 2024/6/24.
MACD Mk2 turned positive on 6/20, and a rising 5MA cross was confirmed at the 6/24 opening price, so it's a long consultation around 38540 yen.
Then, on the 25th and 26th, it soared and reached +3σ. The band walk will start from here, so expectations will rise even higher.
As a result, it rose to 40,440 yen at the end of the 7/3 front session where I wrote this. Maybe it won't stop yet.
It has risen close to 2000 yen.
As a result, it rose to 40,440 yen at the end of the 7/3 front session where I wrote this. Maybe it won't stop yet.
It has risen close to 2000 yen.
Well, if you look at the chartNormally this kind of judgment and explanationIt becomes, but when it falls into a supply and demand bias“But supply and demand are so bad that the upper price is heavy”I made the decision, and not only was I not able to buy it and rideIt was burnt with the worst sales in “It's probably already the ceiling”It will happen.
This is the market price from 2023/4, and people who are supply-demand callers who are only looking to decline in particular have become extinct...
One more thing. Needless to say, popular stocksNTT。
Here, too, the 6/19 MACD Mk2 turned positive, and then I definitely bought the 5MA cross, which rose at the 6/21 opening price. I bought it for 146.0 yen, and now it's 157.5 yen, so it's +7.9%. Large stocks with the worst supply and demand rose by 8% in just 2 weeks.
I also started buying on 6/21, and now I have 2,500 shares. First, I was planning to hold up to about 6,000 shares for around 1 million yen, but the rise was faster than I had imagined, and diversified my investment failed lol
As expected, they are intermittently putting in the market price at 155 yen or less, but they don't sting lol, so if I lose 158.5 yen, I plan to give up and buy up to my target in the 150 yen range.
well,NTT's credit buyback also went crazyIt looks like it's there.
Unbought shares exceeded 300 million shares, and the credit ratio also exceeded 44 timesIt's a horrible number, isn't it? If you look at thisNot being able to buy with supply and demand is a natural decisionIt is.
Unbought shares exceeded 300 million shares, and the credit ratio also exceeded 44 timesIt's a horrible number, isn't it? If you look at thisNot being able to buy with supply and demand is a natural decisionIt is.
While falling, “supply and demand are too bad, so it won't rise” is the right decisionHowever,If it bottoms out on the chart and starts to reverse, you will lose to the trend in many cases, such as the weight of supply and demand. MACD Mk2 can be purchased by simply looking at one chart, but if there is a sign on the chart rather than supply and demand, and there is recognition that supply and demand can be ignored when a trend appears, you can confidently make an inquiry and purchase.
In the first place, the sound of “300 million shares” sounds like a considerable amount of unpaid credit, but the stock price is around 150 yen.It's only 45 billion yen. Since the daily turnover is roughly an average of about 250 million shares, there is a little over a day's worth of unbought shares, and it's not even enough to overreact.
Therefore, if the decline stops in earnest and there is a buying switch, the weight of supply and demand of this level will easily bounce back.
In this way, you can see that if you fall into “supply and demand bias,” you won't be able to win. Far from not winning, futures often have opposite positions, so supply-demand futures traders are forced to leave.
Be sure to check supply and demand,It is necessary to recognize that it is an “unfavorable rise in terms of supply and demand” even during the riseThat's it. Naturally, if the ceiling is attached, there is a high possibility that it will plummet again. This is because the High Price Grab Credit Group, which once went up and was relieved, raised a white flag due to another decline, and now they are selling all at once.
Be sure to check supply and demand,It is necessary to recognize that it is an “unfavorable rise in terms of supply and demand” even during the riseThat's it. Naturally, if the ceiling is attached, there is a high possibility that it will plummet again. This is because the High Price Grab Credit Group, which once went up and was relieved, raised a white flag due to another decline, and now they are selling all at once.
However, you can also see this by looking at the chart.
It is possible to take countermeasures such as selling half or 1/3 of the purchased ball once and for all due to the falling 5MA cross and wait and seeThat's it. If you're too busy with work to see the chart, it's OK if you place a reverse order before going to bed at night at a price about 0.5% below 5MA.
It is possible to take countermeasures such as selling half or 1/3 of the purchased ball once and for all due to the falling 5MA cross and wait and seeThat's it. If you're too busy with work to see the chart, it's OK if you place a reverse order before going to bed at night at a price about 0.5% below 5MA.
First of allOnce a week, it is wrong to mainly use data called “supply and demand,” where only last week's worth of data comes outRight.
On the other hand, without looking up supply and demand, and without looking at charts“It will go up anyway, so it's the same no matter where you buy it”There are extreme people who say this, but this type has worse grades than those who focus on supply and demand. People who don't win disrespect the immediate chart and end up in disadvantageous places.
That's whySupply and demand are important, but they are used as “sub-data”Let's do that.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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kazz51 : It was helpful! Thank you for always being there!![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
熊谷_オプラボ OP : Thank you so much for always being Konira!
181451696 : Thank you very much
It's on the verge of extinction due to priority on supply and demand...
I understood it very well in the explanation
If I could study charts and get back to it
That's great
exera : Stocks can't be looked ahead with just simple logic, right? The pros say they go up because they're being bought now, profits go up because they're being bought now, they go up because profits go up because they're major companies that go up, everyone is supposed to buy products, so even if they think they'll go up, charts have seen scenes where charts betray it. It's hard to read the speculations and psychology of investors of all sizes![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
熊谷_オプラボ OP 181451696 : Thanks for commenting!
It's fine! That's because I used to focus quite a bit on supply and demand, and I failed.
If you notice a method that didn't work, you should change it. If you don't stick around, you can change quickly!
熊谷_オプラボ OP exera : Thanks for commenting!
熊谷_オプラボ OP kazz51 : Thank you for always watching!