ASX stumbles as Iron ore tanks to 4 week low | Dow hit record high | VIX falls to 3 week low | Nvidia rallies on TSMC | Netflix dials up
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WHAT'S HAPPENING
Markets mostly moved higher overnight, digesting a goodie bag of pleasant surprises. The Dow Jones $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ rose to another record high, while Europe’s pan-index, the Stoxx 600, gained 0.8%, ending near a record. Why? Well, markets are forward-looking and believe the bull run can continue thanks to the European Central Bank cutting rates for the third time, and stronger US economic data (retail sales and jobs data) showing the biggest economy is puffing along stronger than thought. Sentiment is further supported by US S&P500 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ company earnings continuing to deliver sweet surprises, with earnings rising about 9% in the quarter – far greater than expected. And the market’s fear gauge, the VIX, has fallen to a three-week low. Bottom line? Markets are on a sugar high.
MARKETS CAN KEEP MOVING UP - BUT TRADERS ARE DIVERSIFYING
US rate cuts bets have been shaved back (with the market now seeing 0.42% of US cuts over the next two US Federal Reserve meetings). So yes, traders believe markets can continue their bullish run. But they’re diversifying now, that’s why they're buying US dollar exposure and government bonds, pushing bond yields up.
WHAT TO WATCH
Gold continues to see buying, with the gold price cracking a new record high. It's now up 30% this year. Next week we will get results from the world's biggest gold miner, $Newmont (NEM.US)$, which will be exciting, given gold can probably keep moving up as central banks are cutting rates and there are concerns about global debt hitting new record highs.
However what's happening with the ASX today? The ASX200 $S&P/ASX 200 (.XJO.AU)$ continued to fall at the open as at 11.30am Sydney time was down 0.7%, more than the futures expected. Still the Aussie market is up 1% on the week and is up 9.3% this year. But today investors are spooked by two things.
Firstly, Middle East tensions picked up after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed. Meanwhile, BHP and Rio Tinto investors have their eyes wide open, with the iron ore price falling to its lowest level in four weeks.
What's going on with iron ore? Traders will be worried that Rio $Rio Tinto (RIO.US)$ and Vale $Vale SA (VALE.US)$ are ramping up iron ore production, while waiting to see China’s recent stimulus efforts manifest into demand. It's a tough pill for patient investors to swallow.
Tech sentiment is bullish for the most part. Investors in tech would be pretty chuffed as the Tech sector on the ASX is 44% this year. Leaving other sectors for dust. While financials are up 27%. While Australia's tech sector has also performed better than the Nasdaq 100 this year.
But back to tech. Although sentiment has been hit by Hamas/Israel tension, the longer-term narrative for tech investors' sentiment gained wings lifted after Taiwan’s biggest company, Taiwan Semiconductor $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ reported far stronger profits than expected, sending Nvidia $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ shares to a record, while Netflix’s $Netflix (NFLX.US)$ results after the market close showed the streaming service is back in high demand.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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