During Rate Cut Cycle, Russell 2000 May Not Outperform S&P 500
I. First Major Rate Cut (January 2001 to June 2003)
– Duration: January 2001 to June 2003
– Rate Reduction: From 6.5% to 1.0%
– Reasons for Rate Cut: 1) Burst of the Internet bubble. 2) Impact of the 9/11 attacks.
– Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500: Russell 2000 outperformed.
II. Second Major Rate Cut (September 2007 to December 2008)
– Duration: September 2007 to December 2008
– Rate Reduction: From 5.25% to 0.25%
– Reasons for Rate Cut: 1) Subprime mortgage crisis. 2) Collapse of Lehman Brothers shook financial markets.
– Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500: Even performance.
III. Third Major Rate Cut (December 2018 to March 2020)
– Duration: December 2018 to March 2020
– Rate Reduction: From 2.50% to 0.25%
– Reasons for Rate Cut: 1) Global economic slowdown. 2) Escalating trade tensions. 3) Inflation rate below target levels.
– Russell 2000 vs. S&P 500: S&P 500 outperformed.
Conclusion
In the absence of an economic crisis or a tech bubble, the performance of the S&P 500 index during rate cut cycles may still outperform the Russell 2000 index.
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