[Earnings Preview] Has Toyota revised its full-year outlook upward? Also pay attention to the EV strategy of chasing Tesla

●What about Toyota Motor CorporationNovember 1Financial results for the 2nd quarter (July-September) of the fiscal year ending 2024/3 are scheduled to be announced.
●The earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2024/3 (as of the first quarter results) is based on sales compared to the previous fiscal year38 trillion yen, up 2.3%, operating profit10.1% increase of 3 trillion yen, net profit5.2% increase of 2.58 trillion yen. EPS190 yen 41 sen. According to current market forecasts for the 2nd quarter (as of 10/26), sales10 trillion 656 billion yen, EPS64 yen 49 sen, EBIT1.95 trillion yen。
● The company's financial results for the first quarter (April-June)It was the first domestic company to exceed 1 trillion yen in terms of quarterly operating incomebutThe full-year earnings forecast remained unchanged from the initial forecast。
● Added Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors, which are under the umbrellaGlobal sales volume for the first half of the year (April-September) was 5.596 million units, up 8.3% from the same period last year, and recorded a record high. The second quarter had record sales in July, August, and September. However, global sales of EVs in the first half of the year (April-September) remained at 59,000 units.
● The next generation EV concept model, which was exhibited at the Japan Mobility Show, which opens on October 26, and aims for a cruising range of 1000 kilometers, which is about twice that of the conventional one, will be introduced in 2026.
● According to the evaluation by 19 analysts, 31.58% are bullish, 26.32% are slightly bullish, and 36.84% are neutral, and the overall evaluation is”Somewhat bullishIt has become”.

Is the rise certain due to the depreciation of the yen, and operating profit is 4 trillion yen?
The earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2024/3 (at the time of financial results for the first quarter) of Toyota Motor Corporation is sales up 2.3% from the previous fiscal year to 38 trillion yen, operating profit up 10.1% to 3 trillion yen, and net profit up 5.2% to 2.58 trillion yen. EPS is 190 yen 41 sen.
However, the company uses 1 dollar = 125 yen and 1 euro = 135 yen as the expected route when calculating earnings forecasts. It is also reported that the depreciation of the yen per dollar boosted operating profit by 45 billion yen per year, and the increase in annual operating profit due to the depreciation of the yen rose to 890 billion yen.
The company has announced a full-year earnings forecastIf operating profit of 3 trillion yen is achieved, it will be the first domestic companyBut then,Depending on the results for the second quarter, 4 trillion yen will come into view。

Despite strong performance in the first quarter, the full-year outlook remained unchanged
The company's operating profit for the first quarter was 1.120.9 billion yen, up 93.7% from the same period last year,It was the first Japanese company to exceed 1 trillion yen. Following favorable financial results for the first quarter, stock prices rose 2.5% on the day financial results were announced and 2.3% the next day.
The full-year outlook for the fiscal year ending 2023/3 of the previous fiscal year was revised upward after financial results for the 1st and 2nd quarters were announced, but for this fiscal year, the full-year outlook was left unchanged in the financial results announcement for the first quarter. If the effects of production lines at some factories being shut down from mid-October to late October due to an explosion accident at the spring factory where the parts were procured are limited,Possibility of making upward revisions in line with the announcement of the 2nd quarter financial resultsThere also seems to be one.

Auto sales are going well in the second quarter
The number of global units sold in July-September, when Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors, which are under the umbrella of Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors, was an 8.4% increase from the same period last year, and in July, global sales volume was a record high, and August and September recorded record highs for both overseas sales volume and global sales volume.
The cumulative global sales volume for the first half of the year (April-September) was 5.596 million units, up 8.3% from the same period last year,Progress rate of about 49.2% compared to the forecast of 11.38 million units per yearIt has become.

EV sales are lagging behind schedule
While current performance is strong, the company's biggest concern is that it lags behind US Tesla and China BYD in EVs. If there is any statement from an executive at the place where financial results are announced, there is a possibility that it will be reflected in stock prices.
The company has plans to increase global sales of EVs to 1.5 million units in 2026 and 3.5 million units in '30.Global sales of EVs in the first half of the year (April-September) remained at 59,000 units, about 30% of the 2024/3 fiscal year (full year) of 2024/3 (full year)It has only reached
However, the global sales volume for the first half of the year (April-September) of electric vehicles as a whole, including hybrid vehicles, etc. was approximately 1.826 million units, and the progress rate is about 47.5% of the 3.843 million units scheduled for the 2024/3 fiscal year (full year). President Koji Sato used the expression “EV first” before taking office as president in February, but on 10/26, in response to an interview with Bloomberg and others, he showed an attitude that “EVs are just one option for decarbonization, and they will adhere to the omnidirectional strategy up until now.”
At the Japan Mobility Show, which opened on October 26, the company exhibited a concept model of a next-generation EV that aims for 1000 kilometers with a cruising range of about twice that of conventional models, which is scheduled to be introduced in 2026. They are also exhibiting multiple EV concept models.
Also, with regard to all-solid-state batteries, which are expected to be game changers in the EV market, the company aims to put all-solid-state batteries into practical use from 27 to 28, and announced on the 12th of this month that they have begun collaboration with Idemitsu Kosan to realize mass production of all-solid-state batteries.
Additionally, for the North American market, the company announced on 10/20 that it will switch to the charging standard adopted by Tesla from 2025.