Earnings Preview: Tesla's Q2 earnings have arrived! Will the momentum of rising stock prices continue, with Robotaxis and energy business as key factors?

US EV giant TeslaThe company will announce its 2024 Q2 earnings on July 24 at 5 a.m. Japan time.Due to optimistic views on interest rate cuts, the approved mask CEO's large compensation package, better-than-expected Q2 customer deliveries, and positive news such as EU tariff reductions, the company's stock, which had fallen nearly 40% year-to-date, rebounded and recorded a 33% increase over the past month.

Challenges in EV demand and headwinds in the China market.
Tesla's global passenger deliveries in the April-June quarter declined by 4.8% year-on-year to 0.443956 million units, but exceeded the market estimate of 0.439302 million units. In response, the company's stock ended regular trading on the US stock market on the 2nd with a 10.2% increase. Despite surpassing market expectations in the second quarter of customer deliveries, Tesla is still facing challenges with EV demand.

In June, customer deliveries in China were 0.071007 million units, a 24.2% decrease compared to the same month last year, marking the third consecutive month of decline year-on-year. The strong growth of major rival BYD has posed a headwind for Tesla in the country. The growth challenges for Tesla in the Chinese market are becoming more apparent.

While the Automobile division may see increased revenue in Q2 due to improvements in customer deliveries compared to the previous period,Continued negative growth compared to the same period last year is expected.Most notably watched.The gross profit margin is 17.42%.、The gross profit margin of the automobile division is 17.97%.Is expected.

However, Barclays warned that Tesla's second-quarter performance may fall below expectations, with automobile gross margin staying at 16%. Despite this, the bank raised Tesla's target stock price from $180 to $225.

Focus on the growth of the energy business.
As the demand for energy increases due to the AI boom, the growth of the company's energy business is also attracting attention.

Tesla reported that the energy storage deployment in the second quarter increased by 129% compared to the previous quarter, reaching a record high of 4GWh on a quarterly basis. The company attributed the record deployment this quarter to the expansion of Super Energy Storage Factory Megapack, Tesla's large-scale commercial energy storage system.

Morgan Stanley analysts stated that Tesla has a trump card and will likely be a key factor in the next AI investment. This "trump card" refers to its solar energy and energy storage business.

Benefitting from the rapid growth of the energy storage market, Tesla's energy business has significantly increased its contributions to revenue and gross profit in 2023 and 2024. While the contribution to total revenue in the first quarter of the energy business was less than 8%, assuming that the sales in the second quarter more than double compared to the previous quarter, the contribution to total revenue could expand to over 14%.

The gross profit margin of this business has exceeded 20% in each of the past three quarters, and the deployment of energy storage and gross profit margin will be a key indicator for the second quarter.

Expectations for "Robo-taxis" and "Model 2".
Tesla recently announced that it has postponed the unveiling of its self-driving taxi, originally scheduled for August 8th, to October. CEO Elon Musk explained on Monday through 'Twitter' that the delay was necessary to redesign the RoboTaxi, and added that additional time was needed to 'show other things.' Baird analyst Ben Kallo mentioned that this event postponement might imply Tesla showcasing the low-cost vehicle 'Model 2'.

The management believes that Tesla is closer to being an 'AI robot company' rather than just an automobile company. Cathy Wood, the founder of investment management firm Ark Investment Management, positioned the RoboTaxi ecosystem as a 'global revenue opportunity of 8 to 10 trillion dollars.' She expects platform providers like Tesla to capture half of this, emphasizing the evaluation of the company's stock while incorporating the potential of self-driving taxis.

There is no doubt that there are significant business opportunities in markets such as RoboTaxis and humanoid robots. However, some investors are concerned about when Tesla will effectively monetize these capabilities, as it still remains unclear.

Movement of stock prices immediately after earnings reports?
According to Market Chameleon, looking back at the past 12 quarterly earnings reports, Tesla has a high probability of declining on earnings release days at about 58%, with an average stock price change rate of ±8.4%, a maximum decline rate of 12.1%, and a maximum increase rate of 12.1%.