[Earnings Preview] Tesla's Q2 financial results have arrived! Robo-taxis and the energy business are decisive factors, and will the momentum of rising stock prices continue?

Tesla, the major US EV companyFinancial results for the fiscal year ending 2024/4-6 (2nd quarter) will be announced at 5:00 on 7/24 Japan time. The company's stock, which has fallen by up to 40% since the beginning of the year due to optimistic views on interest rate cuts, the approved huge remuneration plan for CEO Musk, the number of cars delivered in the 2nd quarter that exceeded expectations, EU tariff cuts, etc., turned to an upward trend, and achieved a 33% rise over the past month.

EV demand issues and headwinds in the Chinese market
Tesla's global sales volume for the April-6 fiscal year was 0.44 million3956 units, down 4.8% from the same period last year, but it exceeded market expectations of 0.43 million9302 units. In response to this, the company's stock closed normal trading with a 10.2% increase in the US stock market on the 2nd. Despite the fact that the number of car deliveries in the second quarter exceeded market expectations, Tesla is still facing EV demand issues.

The number of cars delivered to China in June was 0.07 million1007 units, down 24.2% from the same month last year, and declined for 3 consecutive months compared to the same month last year. The strong growth of its main rival, BYD, has become a headwind for Tesla in the same country. Currently, Tesla's growth issues in the Chinese market have been further highlighted.

Sales in the automobile division may increase from the previous fiscal year due to an improvement in the number of car deliveries in the second quarter,Continued negative growth compared to the same period last yearThat's the forecast. Get the most attentionGross profit margin was 17.42%、The gross profit margin of the automotive sector was 17.97%It is expected.

However, Barclays warned that Tesla's second-quarter results may fall short of expectations, and auto gross margin will remain at 16%. Nevertheless, the bank raised Tesla's target share price from $180 to $225.

Focus on the growth of the energy business
As demand for energy due to the AI boom is increasing more and more, the growth of the company's energy business is also attracting attention.

The amount of energy storage introduced in the second quarter as reported by Tesla was 4 GWh, a 129% increase from the previous quarter, which was a record high on a quarterly basis. We explained that the record amount introduced this quarter was due to the fact that super energy storage plants expanded production of Megapacks (Tesla's large-scale commercial energy storage systems).

It's worth noting that Morgan Stanley analysts stated that Tesla has a trump card and will be the deciding factor for the next AI investment. This “trump card” is the solar energy and energy storage business.

Benefiting from rapid growth in the energy storage market, Tesla's energy business contributed significantly to sales and gross profit in 2023 and 2024. The energy business's contribution to total sales in the first quarter was less than 8%, but assuming that sales in the second quarter were more than double that of the previous quarter, there is a possibility that the contribution to total sales will expand to 14% or more.

The gross profit margin of the same business has both exceeded 20% in the past three quarters, and the development of energy storage and gross profit margin will be notable indicators for the second quarter.

Expectations for “Robo-Taxi” and “Model 2”
The other day, it was announced that Tesla would postpone the self-driving taxi presentation scheduled for 8/8 to October. CEO Elon Musk explained on Monday through “X” that the postponement was due to the need to change the design of the robo-taxi, and further added that additional time was needed “to show other things.” Baird analyst Ben Caro said that the postponement of this event could mean Tesla will show off the lower-priced model “Model 2.”

The management believes that Tesla is not “just an automobile company,” but is close to an “AI robot company.” Cathy Wood, founder of mutual fund management company Arc Investment Management, positioned the robo-taxi ecosystem as a “global income opportunity of 8 trillion dollars to 10 trillion dollars,” predicted that platform providers such as Tesla would account for half of that, and emphasized that the company's stock should be evaluated while incorporating the possibility of autonomous driving taxis.

There is no doubt that there are huge business opportunities in markets such as robo-taxis and humanoid robots, but some investors are concerned that it is still uncertain when Tesla will effectively monetize these capabilities.

Stock price movements immediately after settlement?
According to Market Chameleon, looking back on the past 12 quarterly financial results dates, Tesla has a high probability of falling at about 58% on the financial results announcement date, the average stock price fluctuation rate is ± 8.4%, the maximum rate of decline is 12.1%, and the maximum rate of increase is 12.1%.