[Earnings Preview] Toyota's operating profit of 5 trillion yen is in view! Will there be another upward correction due to the depreciation of the yen
● $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$IsFebruary 6Financial results for the 3rd quarter (April-December) of the fiscal year ending 2024/3 are scheduled to be announced.
● The consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2024/3 is that sales will increase 15.7% from the previous fiscal year to 43 trillion yen, operating profit will increase 65.1% to 4.5 trillion yen, and net profit will increase 61.1% to 3.95 trillion yen. EPS is 292 yen 2 sen. According to the current market forecast for the 3rd quarter (October-December) (as of 1/29), sales11.188 trillion yenWhat is the net profit per share84 yen 16 sen, EBIT1,353 billion yen。
● The estimated exchange rate was changed from 1 dollar = 125 yen to 1 dollar = 141 yen when the interim financial results were announced, which revised the full-year earnings forecast upward. However, with the exception of the timing when the yen temporarily appreciated during the 3rd quarter,The yen has generally been weaker than the expected rate, and there seems to be room for further improvement in business performance。
● Daihatsu Motor, which is under the umbrella of $Hino Motors (7205.JP)$Cumulative total up to the 3rd quarter (April-December) withGlobal sales volume increased 8.6% from the same period last year to 8,56,4077 units, a progress rate of 75.3% compared to the full-year sales forecast of 11.38 million unitsIt has become. Of these, the number of EVs sold was 88,545 units. The full-year sales forecast was revised downward from 202,000 units to 123,000 units when the interim financial results were announced, but it remained at around 70% after the revision.
● Hino Motors, Daihatsu Motor, and Toyota Industries, which are under their umbrella, announced that fraud was being carried out in tests related to obtaining certification in their respective countries from 2022/3 to 24/1. In addition to multiple lawsuits being filed overseas against Hino Motors, shipments of all Daihatsu developed models were suspended on 23/12/20 and 10 Toyota models on 24/1/29.
● According to evaluations by 19 analysts, 31.58% are bullish, 21.05% are slightly bullish, 42.10% are neutral, and 5.26% are bearish, and the overall evaluation is “slightly bullish.”
● The consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2024/3 is that sales will increase 15.7% from the previous fiscal year to 43 trillion yen, operating profit will increase 65.1% to 4.5 trillion yen, and net profit will increase 61.1% to 3.95 trillion yen. EPS is 292 yen 2 sen. According to the current market forecast for the 3rd quarter (October-December) (as of 1/29), sales11.188 trillion yenWhat is the net profit per share84 yen 16 sen, EBIT1,353 billion yen。
● The estimated exchange rate was changed from 1 dollar = 125 yen to 1 dollar = 141 yen when the interim financial results were announced, which revised the full-year earnings forecast upward. However, with the exception of the timing when the yen temporarily appreciated during the 3rd quarter,The yen has generally been weaker than the expected rate, and there seems to be room for further improvement in business performance。
● Daihatsu Motor, which is under the umbrella of $Hino Motors (7205.JP)$Cumulative total up to the 3rd quarter (April-December) withGlobal sales volume increased 8.6% from the same period last year to 8,56,4077 units, a progress rate of 75.3% compared to the full-year sales forecast of 11.38 million unitsIt has become. Of these, the number of EVs sold was 88,545 units. The full-year sales forecast was revised downward from 202,000 units to 123,000 units when the interim financial results were announced, but it remained at around 70% after the revision.
● Hino Motors, Daihatsu Motor, and Toyota Industries, which are under their umbrella, announced that fraud was being carried out in tests related to obtaining certification in their respective countries from 2022/3 to 24/1. In addition to multiple lawsuits being filed overseas against Hino Motors, shipments of all Daihatsu developed models were suspended on 23/12/20 and 10 Toyota models on 24/1/29.
● According to evaluations by 19 analysts, 31.58% are bullish, 21.05% are slightly bullish, 42.10% are neutral, and 5.26% are bearish, and the overall evaluation is “slightly bullish.”
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The operating profit of Toyota Motor Corporation's full-year earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 23/4, which was revised upward in line with the announcement of interim financial results, is 4.5 trillion yen, up 65.1% from the previous year.
Toyota Motor Corporation anticipated an exchange rate of 1 dollar = 125 yen at the beginning of the fiscal year, but the full-year earnings forecast was revised upward based on yen depreciation effects, etc., and the estimated rate was changed to 1 dollar = 141 yen.
During the third quarter, with the exception of the timing when the yen temporarily appreciated, the yen generally depreciated from the expected rate, so it seems that there is room for further improvement in business performance. Operating profit was the first for a domestic company, even at 3 trillion yen, which was anticipated at the beginning of the fiscal year,If there is another upward correction, 5 trillion yen will come into view。
When Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors, which are under the umbrella of Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors, are added, the annual global sales volume in 2023 is a record high of 11.23,039 units, 7.2% higher than the previous year,Number one in the world for 4 consecutive yearsIt became.Toyota alone surpassed 10 million units for the first timeIt reached 10.307,395 units.
Global sales volume for the third quarter (October-December) was 2,968,208 units, up 9.1% from the same period last year, and global sales and overseas sales recorded record highs in October and December. particularlyOverseas sales in December recorded the highest number of units sold in a single month (85,788 units)I did it.
The cumulative global sales volume up to the 3rd quarter (April-December) was 8.56,4077 units, up 8.6% from the same period last year, and the progress rate is 75.3% compared to the forecast of 11.38 million units per year.
As attention to Japanese stocks from overseas is growing, the stock price of Toyota Motor Corporation has also been doing well. Compared to the end of 2022, stock prices have risen more than 60%.
On January 23, 3034 yen, which is the highest price since listing taking stock splits into account, was added, and the total market value (48 trillion 798.1 billion yen) on a closing price basis was immediately after listing in 1987/5 during the bubble period $Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (9432.JP)$It exceeds the total market value (48 trillion 672 billion yen) recorded byBreaking the record for the largest domestic company in historyI did (Nihon Keizai Shimbun, 23rd).
Also on January 23, Bloomberg's total market value of Toyota Motor Corporation surpassed China's Tencent since 2016, second only to Taiwan TSMC and South Korea's Samsung ElectronicsIt became the 3rd largest market capitalization in AsiaIt was reported.
The biggest issue at the moment of Toyota Motor Corporation is the fraud problem related to successive certification tests at its subsidiaries. Hino Motors, which is under its umbrella, announced that fraud was being carried out in tests relating to certification acquisition in each country from 2022/3/8, Daihatsu Motor from 23/4/12, and Toyota Industries from 23/3 to 24/1.
In addition to multiple lawsuits being filed overseas against Hino Motors, shipments of all Daihatsu developed models were suspended on 23/12/20 and 10 Toyota models on 24/1/29 (Daihatsu is scheduled to resume part after February). Hino Motors plans to integrate business with Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and Bus, which is under the umbrella of Daimler Trucks by the end of 24, and Toyota Motor Corporation will lose its subsidiaries.
In response to successive fraud issues at subsidiaries, Chairman Akio Toyoda gathered executives from 17 group companies, including 3 companies, on 1/30 to form a group vision“Let's invent the next path (Inventing our path forward, together)”Presented. In addition to being the person in charge of the group themselves, each company appoints a “master driver” who is positioned as the person responsible for the product, etc.Start again by “returning sovereignty to the field”The idea was clarified.
The medium- to long-term issue of Toyota Motor Corporation is the United States $Tesla (TSLA.US)$or China $BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$It can be said that it is an initiative related to EVs that allows them to take the lead.
Despite the fact that the full-year sales forecast for EVs was revised downward from 202,000 units to 123,000 units when the interim financial results were announced, the cumulative global sales volume of EVs until the 3rd quarter (April-12) was 88,545 units, which is only about 70% of the revised full-year sales forecast.
Toyota Motor Corporation provides a variety of options for automobile development, not limited to EVs“Multiple Pathways” StrategyI'm taking it.
Chairman Toyota said on our media “TOYOTIMES NEWS” which was uploaded on 1/22,”No matter how advanced electric vehicles (EVs) are, up to 30% of the market. 70% are hybrids, fuel cells, hydrogen engines, and gasoline cars, and I think (these) will definitely remain. It's not politics that decides that, the market” he said.
Currently, EVs are showing signs of losing momentum due to issues such as Tesla's stalling, price declines, and dependence on government subsidies, but the number of units sold by Toyota Motor Corporation alone in China in 2023 fell 1.7% below the previous year. Also, according to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun dated 31st, China, which was driven by EVs, took the lead in global automobile exports in 23, and Japan fell to the top position since 2016. The market will also decide the evaluation of whether Toyota Motor Corporation's strategy was correct in the future.
ー MooMoo News Mark
Source: Toyota Motor Corporation website, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Moomoo
Source: Toyota Motor Corporation website, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Bloomberg, Moomoo
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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kozkoz : Each company will have a “master driver.” I wonder if this measure will succeed
