Earnings Season Profit Opportunity: SMCI

Looking back at the last quarter, SMCI actually exceeded expectations in terms of earnings and profit, with a final gross margin higher than the guidance, which can be said to be a very beautiful financial report. Moreover, with the capital expenditure guidance from the three giants (GOOG, MSFT, Meta) last Wednesday, the company's performance may still be booming for at least another one or two quarters. However, it fell by 14% after the market closed, which is the price of over-expectations (the IV is very high, and this morning selling the 1300 calls expiring on Friday can earn more than 300 US dollars per contract).

This company is different from ordinary memes. In terms of execution and performance (not looking at valuation), it is considered excellent. But I believe that this is still a cyclical stock. The revenue and profit estimates from the sell-side have already been projected to 2027, but corporate capital expenditure can change very quickly. There are not so many "predictabilities".