ELF may climb “like a rocket” if all is what it seems……
I bought a fair amount at $101 which almost made me choke, as Ive been buying it all the way down from $150. But it seems to have worked out for me .Then again I’ve been PCAing almost all the way down.. so I’ve still got a bit to go here before breaking even.
But Im not particularly worried about it anymore. As Given all the tailwinds that this stock has going for it, plus their very competitive pricing in a “watch what you spend “ economy, …..I may well buy a good sized additional chunk on anything under 112, if its in the cards.
But I have to say, the pullback continually amazed me insofar as to how far this stock fell, and so fast from its peak. I gotta say when it hit a $100 though , I started getting really concerned, because I thought I must be “missing something” as I watched it tumble day after day.
But for a number of reasons, I refused to sell it given my familiarity with the stock, plus where ELF sits amongst their peers, and my basis seemed to be so far off the high, ( yeah right!) …..plus theyre doing all the right things, I couldnt help but think this is one of the most mispriced stocks out there. ……..But man, they got really whacked anyway
With All they’ve got going for them , aside from some downgrades from a few chicken S**t sell side analysts, I see them as the number one pick of their peers to far exceed expectations,. and to be among the fastest growing skin care/ war paint company in the market over the next 12 - 16 months.They “should” kill it! ….. especially when compared L’Oréal and their ilk……And Coty just as a ”theoretical” peer, was down 7% earlier….Finished down 2% today ,…..and as far as SKIN goes, theyre just not in the game. I dont know all the reasons why. But they just dont seem to be executing ….
The rest of their retail peers are notably overpriced and I think are going to have some significant headwinds and problems in trying to compete at their prior margins and retail price points, as they’re not even in the same ball park as ELF. As comparatively speaking, qualitywise, everyone seems to love ELF’s quality saying quality wise,… they’re right on par with the more “ expensive brands”.
In this particular economy, given where we are right now, the lack of any major upside headwinds and a being a product that rivels food in its demand inelasticity, it seems to me that we are now in what appears to be “ the” golden market timing here.
Don’t quote me,….. but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to see a 60- 100% upside from this recent low. And now that they are actually on the cusp of breaking the downward trend channel , and quickly at that,…( as it’s really close now ),
along with the ushering in of the holidays, the additional good fortune of the dockworkers strike coming to an end far more quickly than anticipated, I just am just not not seeing anything noteable really getting in their way.
They ought to kill it, as beside all of their now current tailwinds , and having now caught a bid, they are additionally the #1 brand amongst all their competitors in both sales and dedicated shelf space at Target, which is the perfect market outlet for their product in the retail space. Thats no small thing.
Though I typically try not to do this, I will take a wild stab at their stock price come January 5th. My guess is $160- 175. I know it’s a big jump, but given their technicals, and all the information I have, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibilities. That would be a Santa’s ELF surprise! So I’ll take it if it comes to be. Lets step on it sales and managemet!!!
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Tonyco : I got in around 126, sold again at 135 then grabbed more before earnings... so I've been right there with you. I was thinking the same thing, but guidance was raised, CEO affirmative during interviews...
Wall St just doesn't understand Millenial and Gen Z habits, or doesn't care... But like my wife said when I asked if she'd heard of ELF... "ya all my stuff is theirs, it's 2x cheaper and lasts 2x as long"
That may horrify greedy old white dudes, but the name of the game is affordability. It has been ever since 2003. They just don't get it. Go ahead and load up on KVUE and EL old dudes... $e.l.f. Beauty (ELF.US)$ gonna rock em