Esperion Therapeutics Is Now A Top Choice Takeover Target

$Esperion Therapeutics(ESPR.US)$ Multiple sources indicate that Esperion's advancements and commercial success with its cholesterol-lowering drugs, NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL, have positioned it as defininte acquistion target for larger pharmaceutical companies. Esperion's drugs NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL now have primary prevention labels, NEXLIZET will soon become the drug of choice over a PCSK9 inhibitor says Texas based HeartPlace leading Cardiologists who have now moved NEXLIZET infront of PCSK9 injections for their patients.

AMGEN $Amgen(AMGN.US)$ has a PCSK9 drug REPATHA, which had $1.9 billion in U.S. sales in 2023, AMGEN would greatly benefit acquiring Esperion before NEXLIZET moves 1st inline as a standard U.S practice over PCSK9 injections. NEXLIZET is the only the non-statin drug with a primary prevention label and is now available to the existing 70 to 90 million Americans that are prescribed Statin drugs on a yearly basis.

Statin drugs are the #1 most prescribed drugs in the world. Over 10% of people are statin intolerant and need alternative drugs, such as a PCSK9 injection or Ezetimibe which is in NEXLIZET as a combo drug with Esperions Bempedoic Acid. An estimated 15% of Americans need additional combination lowering to get to a safe LDLc level. Ezetimibe had almost 9 million prescriptions in 2023, that number is drastically set to decline considering the new label for bothe NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL. NEXLIZET should easily exceed 2 million scripts on yearly basis by 2027, which would generate around $9 billion in yearly revenue.

Esperion has 3 new insurance companies covering over 40 million members starting June 1st 2024 NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL will be covered by these insurance companies and Esperion expects more to get onboard. Esperion has partnered with ASPN pharmacies to cover any new prescriptions that isn't covered by insurance, with just a $10 to $25 copay.

Kaiser Permanente is one of America's leading health care providers and nonprofit health plans, Kaiser has about 12.7 million members, including 9.5 million Californians. Kaiser prescribed an estimated 314,000 PCSK9 injections in 2023, Cafe Pharma has reported that Kaiser Cardilogists are soon expected to move NEXLIZET 1st inline over PCSK9's, this will generate a substantial cost saving of over $1 billion per year for Kaiser, patients will take a once a day pill instead of a injection every two weeks, and avoid two doctor visits every month. Esperion will see a very large increase in revenue, every 100,000 patients will generate nearly $500 million per year for Esperion. Amgen $Amgen(AMGN.US)$ and other PCSK9 companies know they will lose market share, a once a day pill is by far the easier and safer option.

NEXLIZET and NEXLETOL have an edge over statin drugs and pcsk9 injections because they basically have no side effects and do not cause A1C #'s to rise, which is a becoming a serious concern because more and more people are seeing their A1C levels rise while taking a statin drug.

Esperions partner Daiichi Sankyo Europe (DSE) is way ahead on prescriptions, they currently have over 258,000 yearly scripts on a previously restricted label, last week on May 22nd 2024, DSE had excellent news, was granted the very same primary prevention label that the FDA granted Esperion 2 months ago. In Germany NEXLIZET is 1st inline over PCSK9 injections, the U.K. will soon follow Germany requiring patients must try NEXLIZET 1st. DSE is starting prescription sales in 3 new countries and has hired over 200 new drug sales reps.


On May 20th 2024, Esperion's Japan partner Otsuka finished it's phase3 Bempedoic Acid trial with excellent results, Japan will launch the equivalent of NEXLIZET & NEXLETOL within the next 6 to 9 months, resulting in milestone payments and upto 30% royalties for Esperion. Otsuka owes $600 million in milestone payments shown under partner page on Esperion Therapeutics website.

Esperion has $560 million in debt that is due in November 2025. Esperion expects to be profitable by the end of 2024 and has no need to raise any additional capital, so no stock dilution. Esperions investor relations "RIPA loan repayment is percentage of revenue, with higher rate in 2025. Internal forecasts indicate the company can manage the higher royalty rate without needing dilution or cost cutting in market scale up efforts for NEXLIZET & NEXLETOL".

Esperion has patent protection until 2031 and believes can have patent protection until 2040.
Analysts average price target is $9+. Fair valuation on a takeover would exceed $2 billion, on the low end an offer could be $8 to $10 and the high end $14 to $18.



$Pfizer(PFE.US)$ has been active in the cardiovascular space and acquiring Esperion would complement its existing portfolio, providing a boost with Esperion's cholesterol lowering drugs, Pfizer's extensive marketing and distribution network could significantly increase the reach and sales of Esperion's drugs.

$AstraZeneca(AZN.US)$ AstraZeneca has a strong cardiovascular franchise and has shown interest in expanding its pipeline in this therapeutic area. Esperion's products would enhance AstraZeneca's offerings, especially given the complementary nature of their drug portfolios.

$Novartis AG(NVS.US)$ Novartis has also been expanding its cardiovascular and metabolic disease portfolio. Acquiring Esperion could fit, adding innovative therapies that align with Novartis's focus on cardiovascular.

$Merck & Co(MRK.US)$ Merck Is developing a PCSK9 pill that could come to market by 2030 yet it would be wise for Merck to snap up Esperion now before NEXLIZET becomes a blockbuster drug. Merck could easily offer a stock deal that could be very favorable and value ESPERION near the $17 per share valuation.

The above article will be submitted to several websites in June and is not a paid compensation article. The author is long Esperion ESPR and continues to buy the stock at such depressed prices.

Esperion currently has 15% of the float held short, if $GameStop(GME.US)$ and $AMC Entertainment(AMC.US)$ investors with #wallstreetbets seriously researched Esperion they would realize how deeply undervalued the company is and recognize the upside reward is 500% within the next 6 to 12 months. I doubt you will find another biotech or company that is valued so low and could generate over $9 billion on a yearly basis, investing in ESPR now is like buying $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ $Apple(AAPL.US)$ $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ $Netflix(NFLX.US)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD.US)$ $Moderna(MRNA.US)$ $Viking Therapeutics(VKTX.US)$ $Regeneron Pharmaceuticals(REGN.US)$ before they got huge. ESPR has the potential to be a $100+ stock in less than 5 years. My advice buy a little and forget it.