ETFs you should know about: 12 analysts' picks from August-September 2024
The Invesco Russell 1000 Dynamic Multifactor ETF (OMFL) has quickly earned a reputation for being unpredictable. Last year, annual portfolio turnover skyrocketed to 350%, and although I cautioned against this in my April 2023 review of the fund, I'm still surprised at the fund's extreme fall from grace. Since its launch in November 2017, OMFL has lagged behind the $Ishares Russell 1000 Etf (IWB.US)$ by 7%, completely erasing its 33% lead from April 3, 2023, the date my initial review was published.
Still, OMFL isn't destined to fail. September marks the second straight month where its underlying portfolio is on solid footing, and if you've managed to hold on for this long, I ask for just a little more patience. OMFL currently ranks well on most factors, and although I can't make any promises, I'm cautiously optimistic its model has settled on either the "slowdown" or "contraction" phase, meaning its high-quality selections should remain for the near term. I look forward to providing an update on OMFL's fundamentals below and comparing it with four alternatives you might find more appropriate.
While there are many dividend focused ETFs, standard equity funds with a yield between 4-6% are few and far between. One of the best of these appears to be the $Spdr Series Trust Spdr Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend Etf (SPYD.US)$ with a forward yield of 4.07%. However, as this article will highlight, its composition is too basic to set it apart and there are better funds in this space.
SPYD is a passively managed fund launched in 2015. The selection process isn't very complex. According to the prospectus, the only real filter is a company must have "unadjusted market capitalizations of at least $14.5 billion and float-adjusted market capitalizations of at least $7.25 billion at the time of inclusion." The fund then selects the 80 remaining stocks with the highest dividends and equally weights them. The portfolio is rebalanced semi-annually, in January and July.
This differs greatly from one of SPYD's peers, the $Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers ETF (PEY.US)$ which excludes REITs. If you want to avoid this sector, or have enough REIT exposure as it is, perhaps PEY is a better option.
Since I last covered the $Direxion Shares Etf Trust Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index Shares (QQQE.US)$ in my bullish thesis on December 20 last year, it has returned nearly 6.75% and is trading at $88.6 as shown below. While this is not a significant gain, it still shows the rotation away from the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) group has started, as I detail further.
This thesis aims to show that the momentum could continue thereby making a case to invest in the equal-weighted fund instead of the market cap-weighted $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ for those wanting to gain exposure to the AI theme as the landscape continues to shift and the focus turns on monetization as I had elaborated in a recent piece.
As the leading Mag 7 stock and forming part of QQQE’s top holdings as shown below, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ beat both the top line and bottom line as has been the case for the past seven quarters, but its Data Center revenue decelerated both on a sequential and year-on-year basis. This slowness for a segment that includes the flagship H100 GPU, the very building block for the AI infrastructures that support intelligent apps could be temporary as the guidance (midpoint) for the third quarter is above what analysts were expecting. However, the stock subsequently falling by over 8% suggests that investors are either not convinced or taking some time to make sense of the results.
Over the past ten days after Black Monday, Brazilian equities have gained approximately 15.16% since the August 5th opening. This comes with a strong performance in financial stocks such as $Itau Unibanco (ITUB.US)$, $Bank Bradesco SA(prefer share ADS) (BBD.US)$, Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão, and Banco do Brasil. Partially countered by the divergence of returns of the index's largest component, $Vale SA (VALE.US)$, then of a warning sign from the biggest steel producer in the world due to a potentially severe crisis in China that could bring ripple effects to the rest of the world.
Collectively, the financial stocks mentioned above sum approximately 21.54% of the index weight based on the holdings of the $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ.US)$, with all of them outperforming the index over the past two weeks. Recently, there was an announcement that $Nu Holdings (NU.US)$, $XP Inc (XP.US)$, $StoneCo (STNE.US)$, $PagSeguro Digital (PAGS.US)$, and $Inter & Co (INTR.US)$ will enter the index on September 2nd, which will boost allocations to the financial sector in the index which collectively is already the largest component with 25.06%. This is followed by energy (20.53%) and basic materials (15.07%), which aligns with the typical economic dependence on the financial and commodity sectors in developing markets.
After the impressive surge in the ETF price, this analysis will explore drivers that will try to explain the recent up-movements in the Brazilian market, coupled with its valuation and outlook, to finally decide on a buy rating of the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF.
Roundhill Innovation-100 0DTE Covered Call Strategy ETF (QDTE) is a covered call that writes daily options and pays weekly dividends on $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$. I covered this fund in a recent article titled "QDTE: A New Fund That Writes Daily Options And Pays Weekly" and the fund seems to have had a shift in its strategy since then, and I believe it's worth looking at the fund once again in light of its new strategy.
Before we dive into the fund's new strategy and its implications (both positive and negative), first let us look at the fund's recent performances. The fund has only been around for a few months and so far, it delivered 8.2% in total returns while it saw a NAV decay of -7.8% in terms of price action. All in all, investors made money at an annualized rate of 20% since the fund's inception, which is not bad at all.
This could be the result of a recent strategic shift in the fund. This is a newly created actively managed fund, and it's typical for these types of funds to have a strategic shift over time as they tweak their plays and see what works and what doesn't. As a result of recent changes, there are 2 things this fund does differently from other daily covered call funds. First, it started writing calls on the day of expiration, not the day before. Second, it started buying deeply in the money calls instead of buying actual shares or doing synthetics like how YieldMax funds do.
The Capital Group Dividend Growers ETF (CGDG) is my next pick in the top American Funds ETFs that I've been covering recently. While the first one on (CGBL) presents a balanced investment in stocks and bonds with a very compelling case, the second one covering international investments (CGIE) represents a sensible geographic diversification into large-cap European securities focused on growth. For this next analysis, I've chosen one that might appeal to dividend growth investors because I believe it comprises a considerable portion of the community of long-term investors.
CGDG is only about a year old, having been incepted on 9/26/2023. It was launched alongside several other ETFs in the American Funds family under the Capital Group brand, which is nearly a century old. In 2022, the group started launching the first of its "transparent ETFs", which essentially means a tighter bid/ask spread because holdings are disclosed on a daily basis. Another feature of these funds is that they take direct ownership of overseas stocks, eliminating the need to buy ADRs. The reason that's better is that ADRs come with additional risks such as currency risks, lack of voting rights, higher costs, and trading hours being restricted to U.S. market hours (as opposed to having live trading data when directly investing in overseas-domiciled securities.)
This $1.2 billion ETF comes with a dividend yield of 1.5% (forward basis; 30-day SEC yield is ~3%), which might seem low for a dividend-focused ETF, but only until you see the impressive 25% return since inception and put it in that context.
Recent market conditions have sparked a renewed interest in long-term Treasury bonds. Last week, Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, gave a speech where he indicated that the time has come to begin cutting interest rates, largely due to lower levels of inflation and higher rates of unemployment. Given this confirmation, it appears increasingly likely that Treasuries shall perform well in the coming months and quarters. If this is the case, it is likely a good time to allocate to the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF).
Long-term Treasury bonds provide a steady stream of income through their interest payments, and they cannot be called back like most bonds and CDs. Treasuries are also among the safest and highest-rated securities any market offers, as they are guaranteed by the U.S. government, and backed by its ability to tax and print dollars. Alternatively, most investments from non-government entities are legally prohibited from making such express guarantees.
Bonds also serve an important function as a hedge that can balance the risk from equity investments in a portfolio. Usually, when the stock market drops, Treasuries benefit from a flight to safety. While this capacity to hedge has not been exceedingly evident over the last few years, as interest rates climbed and bonds lost value, that was likely due to prior rock bottom interest rates and the significant level of risk that was associated with long-term fixed income at rates below two percent. Now, bonds offer a more compelling interest rate, plus the potential to increase in value if rates should decline.
The Other Five Fit For Mention
$Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM.US)$ : Gained popularity in recent years, but the performance relative to the S&P 500 has left much to be desired.
$Vanguard Mega Cap Value ETF (MGV.US)$ : #1 holding In Vanguard's mega-cap value ETF will surprise you
$VanEck Vectors Fallen Angel High Yield Bond (ANGL.US)$ : Great potential for total return and a contrarian buying opportunity
$Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF (TNA.US)$ : It might be time to invest in small-cap.
$Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV.US)$ : Time to upgrade Vanguard's long duration fund.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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