Everything You Need to Know on Thursday: AtkinsRéalis Reports Slight Profit Decline Amid Growth in Service Backlog and Revenue

Good morning mooers! Here are things you need to know about today's market:

● S&P/TSX 60 Index Standard Futures are trading at 1,513.50, up 0.60% from previous close

● Energy experts predict Trump will exempt Canadian oil from tariffs

● Canada agrees with US concerns about Mexico's trade with China

● Scotiabank comments on Canada's population

● AtkinsRéalis reports slight profit decline amid growth in service backlog and revenue

Today, the Canadian dollar is trading at 71.69 US cents, a decrease from the previous close.

Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland acknowledged the validity of American concerns regarding Mexico's divergent trade policies with China, aligning herself with the criticisms. She avoided commenting directly on Ontario Premier Doug Ford's suggestion for a bilateral US-Canada trade deal excluding Mexico.

Freeland highlighted that concerns about Mexico's trade alignment with China were raised by both future members of the incoming Trump administration and current Biden administration officials. She emphasized Canada's alignment with US policies, noting recent Canadian tariffs on Chinese products, which reflect a tightly coordinated economic stance between Canada and the US.

Mexico has responded to US complaints by imposing tariffs aimed at curbing Chinese steel imports. Freeland, who was pivotal in negotiating the North American free trade agreement during Trump's first term, is set to be a key figure in future negotiations. The agreement, due for review by July 2026, might see changes under Trump's plans for renegotiation.

Ford argued for stronger alignment of Mexico's tariffs with North American standards or reconsidering its place in continental trade discussions. He advocated for prioritizing a bilateral US-Canada trade agreement to focus on the benefits for workers in both nations, underscoring Ontario's significant role in Canada's auto industry.

On October 24, the Canadian government announced comprehensive new immigration measures aimed at both permanent and non-permanent residents, as reported by Scotiabank. These steps are part of efforts to meet a target of non-permanent residents making up 5% of the population by the end of 2026. However, Scotiabank has raised concerns about the feasibility of achieving this target within the set timeframe due to administrative and other barriers.

The bank also noted that while Canada's population growth is solid, it has decelerated slightly. The latest data shows the smallest monthly growth rate of the year, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of just over 3%. Furthermore, the issuance of temporary permits in 2024 has declined significantly compared to the previous year, suggesting a potential slowdown in new arrivals.

Scotiabank forecasts a population growth of approximately 2.9% for this year, considering the late timing of the new measures and the delayed impact of earlier restrictions. The growth rate is expected to drop to 0.9% in 2025. The bank highlights the International Mobility Program as a critical area to watch, as the government's management of this program will heavily influence whether future population growth targets are achieved.

Energy experts predict that President-elect Donald Trump's proposed 10% tariff on all imports will likely exclude Canadian oil despite causing concerns in Canada about potential economic impacts. Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil market researcher, sees a small chance of the tariff affecting Canadian oil, but notes it could be significantly damaging due to Canada's dependence on U.S. refineries. Despite strained political relations between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, former Trump energy adviser Michael Catanzaro expressed optimism about continued U.S.-Canada energy cooperation. Experts agree that excluding Canadian oil from tariffs would prevent price hikes at American gas pumps, benefiting both countries. Wilbur Ross, former U.S. commerce secretary, further indicated possible exemptions for Canadian oil and gas in the tariffs, aligning with Trump's broader energy goals.

AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. reported a slight decrease in third-quarter profit, earning $103.7 million, or 59 cents per diluted share, compared to $105.0 million, or 60 cents per diluted share the previous year, influenced by a gain from the sale of its Scandinavian engineering business, Systra Group.

Excluding this one-time gain, the company's adjusted earnings rose from 38 cents to 63 cents per diluted share year-over-year, reflecting stronger performance in its professional services and project management sectors.

Third-quarter revenue increased to $2.45 billion from $2.20 billion in the same period last year. The firm's service backlog grew significantly to $16.84 billion, up from $12.50 billion, although its lump-sum turnkey project backlog decreased to $190.1 million from $305.2 million.