Everything You Need to Know on Tuesday: Barrick Gold Down 1.9% In US Premarket as Confirms 2024 Targets

Good morning mooers! Here are things you need to know about today's market:

● S&P/TSX 60 Index Standard Futures are trading at 1,300.40, down 0.52%.

● Statistics Canada to release March inflation report today

● Oil prices could breach $100 as Middle East conflict turns more dangerous, analysts warn

● Housing optimism surges in Canada with rate cuts on horizon

● Stocks to watch: Barrick Gold

Today, the Canadian dollar is trading at 72.53 cents US, a slight decrease from Monday.

The S&P/TSX 60 Index Standard Futures (SXF) are currently trading at 1,300.40, which is down 0.52% from the previous close.

Statistics Canada will release its latest reading on inflation this morning.

The agency will publish its consumer price index for March.

Statistics Canada reported last month that the annual pace of inflation cooled to 2.8 per cent in February compared with 2.9 per cent in January.

The inflation report will be scrutinized by the Bank of Canada which kept its key interest rate target on hold last week at five per cent, but said it is "within the realm of possibilities" that it could cut interest rates in June.

The central bank has said it is seeing what it needs to see, but needs to see it for longer to be confident that progress toward price stability will be sustained.

The inflation report comes as the federal government prepares to release its budget later this afternoon.

After reaching its highest price since October, oil could rise even further and possibly breach the US$100 mark this year if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, analysts say.

West Texas Intermediate crude was trading for between US$85 and US$90 per barrel late last week ahead of Iran’s attack on Israel. Following the attack, economists from Moody’s Analytics Inc. said they expect the price to increase to between US$90 and US$95 per barrel. The analysts noted two possible scenarios from here on.

“The most likely is a measured and restrained response from Israel that de-escalates tensions. That would see the $10-per-barrel risk premium fade over the next few weeks,” the economists said in a note on Monday. “The second, and far more damaging, scenario would see an escalation in the conflict as Israel forcefully responds to the attack. Were that to occur, oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel.”

Bank of Nova Scotia analysts said the conflict’s latest escalation has changed the rules of engagement in the region to become much more dangerous.

“The higher risk premium in the oil market will be here to stay for the foreseeable future,” they said in a note. “Our current 2024 and 2025 oil price forecast may prove to be too conservative and require upward revisions.”

Canadians are growing bullish on housing again.

Nearly half of them - 48 per cent - say they expect the value of real estate in their neighbourhoods to increase over the next six months, according to a poll by Nanos Research for Bloomberg News. Only eight per cent foresee a decline. The rest expect no change or are unsure.

That difference of 40 points is the largest since May 2022, two months after the Bank of Canada began to raise interest rates.

Excluding 2020 to 2022, the pandemic period during which home prices rose at an extraordinary pace, its highest reading on property prices since the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index began in 2008.

Bank of Canada officials said last week they may soon begin to lower the overnight interest rate if inflation measures continue to move in the right direction. Plenty of potential homebuyers have been waiting for lower borrowing costs to make a purchase, and Canada’s rapid population growth has created additional housing demand.

“Let’s just say that if the Bank of Canada doesn’t cut rates soon, many in the real estate market are going to be seriously disappointed,” Robert Kavcic, senior economist at Bank of Montreal, said in a note to investors.

The Bank of Canada expects “moderate growth” in house prices over the next two years. But officials cited the possibility of a sharp increase as one of the main upside risks to their inflation forecast.

The company reported preliminary Q1 production of 940,000 ounces of gold and 40,000 tonnes of copper, as well as preliminary Q1 sales of 910,000 ounces of gold and 39,000 tonnes of copper.

As previously guided, Barrick's gold and copper production in 2024 is expected to "progressively increase" each quarter through the year, with the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion ramping up from Q2 and the Porgera mine restart continuing in line with plans.

According to Tuesday's statement, the average market price for gold in Q1 was US$2,070 per ounce while the average market price for copper in Q1 was US$3.83 per pound.