Excerpts from Monday August 19 Bloomberg
Probability reduction
Goldman Sachs Group economists will recession in the US over the next year (recessionThe probability of falling into) has been reduced from 25% to 20%. It was based on recent retail sales and the number of unemployment insurance claims. I explained that the August employment statistics “if they look good enough, they will probably lower the recession probability to 15%.” Regarding the September US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, they commented that the 25 bps (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) interest rate cut has become “more certain.” However, it was also pointed out that if employment statistics decline, there is still a possibility that it will induce a movement to cut interest rates by 50 bps.
A signal for interest rate cuts
In the lecture that US Federal Reserve (FRB) Chairman Powell will give on the 23rd at the Jackson Hole meeting (annual symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve), interest rate cuts are imminentconfirmationsThere are many views on Wall Street that it will happen. However, as discussions shift from “the pros and cons of interest rate cuts” to “the magnitude of interest rate cuts,” stock traders may feel unsatisfactory depending on what is said. If statements or the like that are accepted as hawkish pop out, there is a risk that the S&P 500 stock price index, which has rebounded since the sharp decline in early August, will shake again.
Mr. Harris Reed
US Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Harris leads Republican candidate former President Trump by 49% to 45% in the approval ratio of registered voters. Opinion polls from the Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos showed it. The survey was conducted online on 9-13, targeting 2,336 adults, including 1901 registered voters. Trump's election on the 17thrallyingSo, they tried to link Mr. Harris to high inflation under the Biden administration, but after that, it ended up being an ad hoc individual attack. Mr. Harris announced his economic policy on the 16th. Response to inflation, which is regarded as a negative legacy, was placed as a pillar, and voters' dissatisfaction with pricesappealI did it.
★ China, Israel, and Hamas are not listed![]()
Goldman Sachs Group economists will recession in the US over the next year (recessionThe probability of falling into) has been reduced from 25% to 20%. It was based on recent retail sales and the number of unemployment insurance claims. I explained that the August employment statistics “if they look good enough, they will probably lower the recession probability to 15%.” Regarding the September US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, they commented that the 25 bps (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) interest rate cut has become “more certain.” However, it was also pointed out that if employment statistics decline, there is still a possibility that it will induce a movement to cut interest rates by 50 bps.
A signal for interest rate cuts
In the lecture that US Federal Reserve (FRB) Chairman Powell will give on the 23rd at the Jackson Hole meeting (annual symposium hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve), interest rate cuts are imminentconfirmationsThere are many views on Wall Street that it will happen. However, as discussions shift from “the pros and cons of interest rate cuts” to “the magnitude of interest rate cuts,” stock traders may feel unsatisfactory depending on what is said. If statements or the like that are accepted as hawkish pop out, there is a risk that the S&P 500 stock price index, which has rebounded since the sharp decline in early August, will shake again.
Mr. Harris Reed
US Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Harris leads Republican candidate former President Trump by 49% to 45% in the approval ratio of registered voters. Opinion polls from the Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos showed it. The survey was conducted online on 9-13, targeting 2,336 adults, including 1901 registered voters. Trump's election on the 17thrallyingSo, they tried to link Mr. Harris to high inflation under the Biden administration, but after that, it ended up being an ad hoc individual attack. Mr. Harris announced his economic policy on the 16th. Response to inflation, which is regarded as a negative legacy, was placed as a pillar, and voters' dissatisfaction with pricesappealI did it.
★ China, Israel, and Hamas are not listed
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
介護ばかりで心身壊れ鬱病（強迫性障害）の枯葉のおばちゃん('ω')投資は一心になれるので救いにもなってます。犬🐶好き❤️
247Followers
234Following
2079Visitors
Follow
181338057犬心久美子 OP : Thank you to everyone who liked it