TSLA
Tesla
-- 410.440 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 144.470 PLTR
Palantir
-- 79.890 AMD
Advanced Micro Devices
-- 125.370 CRNC
Cerence
-- 19.330 
Considering the exchange rate and cryptocurrency from the perspective of carry trade.
Looking at the short to medium-term interest rates of the Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar, the market almost definitively expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. I will try to organize the recent trading analysis process.
In carry trades, it has been logical globally to borrow low-interest assets to invest in high-interest assets for profit. Therefore, it was rational to borrow the low-interest yen and invest in the high-interest U.S. dollar.
Considering that this is the engine of the strong yen and weak dollar, which has advanced to the 140 yen per dollar level due to the recent policy changes by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, it is now considered theoretically optimal to simply sell the dollar and buy the yen. In the extreme short term, I think the Tokyo Consumer Price Index and the personnel changes in the new U.S. administration were significant factors moving forward.
Even if the Japanese yen interest rate reaches 0.5% and the U.S. interest rate reaches 3.5%, there is still a 3% interest rate difference between the two, so it is not enough to completely reverse carry trades. Therefore, it is anticipated that temporary yen strength and dollar weakness will occur, but this is expected to be limited. Even if the interest rate difference between the two disappears in the future, it is expected to happen quite far in the future, and if that were to counteract the dollar's strength direction based on the relative interest rate difference, I feel that it is risky to significantly shift asset positions from dollar assets to yen assets in the short term.
On the other hand, since Bitcoin has a fixed issuance limit, there is no depreciation due to increased circulation like with fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen, assuming that the intrinsic value does not change. If inflation of prices against fiat currencies, which many central banks target at 2%, assumes that prices rise by 2% each, then.
The actual price of cryptocurrency is currently at a stage where there is a debate about whether it truly has value as an asset, so the fluctuation is much larger compared to the logic mentioned earlier. However, it is believed that as the asset is backed up, the returns will increase.
Turning to the rise in the price of cryptocurrencies, if we apply a similar approach to carry trades based on the time axis that the relative position of current value to future value is high, like with interest rates of fiat currencies, it can be argued that it is rational to sell the declining U.S. dollar and hold a position in cryptocurrency at the current price.
Even if accurate predictions about future prices are not possible, due to cryptocurrency ETFs and the US BITCOIN Act, I personally perceive cryptocurrency as an asset class with a risk level similar to emerging market currencies, so I would like to include it as part of asset allocation.
Unfortunately, it is not possible to buy cryptocurrency ETFs in Japan. Additionally, gas prices are high, physical profits are considered miscellaneous income and taxed heavily. Adjusting the amount of cryptocurrency-related stock holdings seems to be the most cost-effective in my overall asset situation. Therefore, I plan to control by adjusting the amount of cryptocurrency-related stock holdings in line with the market until there is a change in the environment.
Specifically, starting in the second half of this year and until around the US presidential election, I plan to concentrate investments in MSTR stock at an average of about $250, aiming to allocate up to 50% of US dollar-denominated assets. Afterward, I will take profits in three equal parts at an average of $440 and reinvest 10% of the selling amount at $390 into the US dollar assets that I currently hold.
Considering the key events this year, I anticipate a US rate cut and a decision on whether there will be a Japanese rate hike around mid-December. However, as I will need to convert a considerable amount of US stocks to yen for next year's tax return and payment, there are no concentrated investment positions exceeding 10% of asset allocation. Nevertheless, I plan to review the positions of each asset to be carried over next year over the course of a month.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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fujikenner : That's a great discussion
さとこじ OP fujikenner : Thanks for commenting!
麦マル : Great reflection
ウーロンマスク神 : I agree. I am a soroban.
さとこじ OP ウーロンマスク神 : Thanks for commenting. I like thinking, and my intuition is really dull, so on the contrary, I think people who can move with an abacus are amazing lol
さとこじ OP 麦マル : Thanks for commenting. The feeling of heating up until MSTR reached the highest value of 540 has settled down quite a bit, so considering that there is a possibility that Bitcoin will be adopted as an American reserve, long-term hold is also dominant as an option if actual Bitcoin is to be avoided. There is a part where the investment destination field is also relatively open, so I would be happy if we could discuss it, so thank you for your continued support!
麦マル : This is it
超長期投資家 : Can interest rates be raised even in such economic conditions?
さとこじ OP 超長期投資家 : Thanks for commenting.
LIZ_REI : I have a question, are you conducting technical analysis?
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