Expectations and concerns about Tesla
I wonder how many people have watched the FSD live stream? I've probably watched it, and it feels pretty good; it just takes time to test. I think Tesla will no doubt be the first to commercialize fully automated driving on a large scale. After all, artificial intelligence competes for data. Whoever has more data for training will win this game. I'm optimistic $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US$ This is also the logic.
Although Tesla doesn't have many models, the coverage is good, and they can pull people and goods. Once fully automated driving is achieved, it will greatly boost the development of productivity.
The core logic behind the continued prosperity of US stocks is that there are always excellent companies in the US that drive progress in productivity, and even disrupt many traditional industries. There is nothing wrong with long-term investment grasping this general direction and betting on the most advanced productivity. Even if you don't enter the market right away, you can succeed. For example, when Buffett was heavily involved in Apple, there were several generations of iPhones, but this investment was still a huge success.
Back to business, can Tesla beat so many traditional car companies? That's a great question. So where are the Nokia, Blackberry, and Sony phones? Autonomous driving, can't other brands do it? With so many smartphone brands, is Apple still more than three trillion dollars alone?
If one day in the future, Musk smiles and sells cars at a profit close to zero, then it is likely that it will be the time for Stuart Tesla. The value created by fully automated driving is far from being comparable to a sofa with four wheels; this is a reduction in dimensions.
The future Tesla is betting on is robotics. From a long-term perspective, as long as Tesla is successful, its importance will far surpass chat GPT. In sci-fi movies, robots can only talk but can't move. Well, this sci-fi is a bit original.
However, the success of chat GPT is more predictable, and the bots are a bit far away. Although I'm optimistic about Google, I really want to $Meta Platforms(META.US$ Launch code llama and give it a thumbs up. I haven't started using it yet, but for some time to come, I'll take a closer look to see if I can save myself from being left behind in the age who can't write code. If I could actually use code llama to write a good code, then if farmers use it, they might be able to use one as ten. Lower-level code farmers should pay attention: the meaning of one to ten is not only a cow, but 10% of bulls and 90% of layoffs. And I'm also going to reduce my meta position at some point in time. After all, I didn't buy it before because I didn't use it, so if it feels good to use it, then I should buy it.
Back to business, the next 2 weeks, at most 3 weeks, for Tesla and long-term treasury bonds $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT.US$ It's critical. Both experienced a round of sharp decline, then jumped high and rebounded. As for TSLA, if this jump gap persists for at least 2 weeks without making up, then the high point of increase after that is bound to exceed 300. I estimate it can reach around 350. If this gap is lost, we need to be wary. Once the previous low of 212 falls below, it is necessary to rush to the vicinity of MA200 to seek support, or even fall below, to around 180.
But no matter what the stock price is, Tesla or Tesla, Musk or Musk. The more a good company falls, the cheaper it is; the more it falls, the more it needs to be bought. Bad companies and the sunset industry are not OK, ha; if they fall down, they will probably go bankrupt and go to zero. As long as it's a bad company, it doesn't matter how big it is, like Credit Suisse...
On the side of the long debt, the government is issuing it, and China is selling it. I don't know if this time it was a stabilization or a reversal in the midst of a decline. Let's go down. The worse it falls, the higher the dividend rate, and the more it will rise in the future.
Currently, there are three major thundermines in US stocks:
1. Interest rates on bonds are high, squeezing valuations. The last time TLT was this cheap, in November of last year, how many points were US stocks at that time? What's the point now? The rise in US stocks in the first half of this year was largely unleashed by valuations, but now it is back to being squeezed back into valuation.
2. Small to medium banks went bankrupt. Interest rates are high, and small banks continue to lose money. As long as the Fed refuses to cut interest rates, banks will go bankrupt. If they go bankrupt a few more times later, it's not a liquidity issue; it's a real loss leading to bankruptcy. Moreover, while layoffs in the technology finance industry have come to an end, other traditional industries have also begun to lay off workers. The economy is in shamble for two days; in fact, it is very unstable.
3. China's economic crisis. The world's second-largest economy is in crisis, and the world's stocks will be affected. However, we all fell down together, and US stocks were definitely the first to gain a firm foothold. As to whether it will start a war, it's really possible...
I really didn't expect that China's best hand would be ruined so quickly. But there's nothing you can do about it. Sooner or later, the thunderstorm that China's housing prices are too high will explode; I can only sigh![]()
So, you still have to be careful, but if you should buy, you still have to buy; just keep stop loss in mind at all times.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
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