Expectations for an easy appreciation of the yen are in a difficult phase

Dollar purchases are clear when employment statistics are passed.

It is often said that the dollar and yen are determined by the Japan-US interest rate difference. Therefore, the general idea is that US interest rates will be lowered in '24, and the Japan-US interest rate difference will shrink drastically due to the cancellation of negative Japanese interest rates, and the yen will therefore appreciate...

That's right, but the problem is the breadth, changes in location, and factors such as the strength of the dollar and the weakness of the yen.

It's obvious at a glance if you look at the chart below, but the current interest rate difference of 3.37% is the 3.35% line itself.
When it was 3.35% in July '23, the dollar yen was 138 yen. And now it's 148 yen, which is 10 yen cheaper.

Even if rice cuts interest rates, Japan lifts negative interest rates, and the interest rate difference shrinks to 3.1% in early spring of this year, it may be in the 140 yen range.
After all, 2/1 dollar yen, where the interest rate difference has shrunk to 3.196%, is 146 yen 40 sen. Recently, the interest rate difference was 0.2%, and the yen appreciated by only 2 yen.

Even if 5 yen falls from the current situation, it's 143 yen, so I think the scenario where interest rate differences shrink and fall below 135 yen or 130 yen or less at once is difficult.