Goodbye to a Rocky September: Is the Stock Market Poised for a "Golden October"?

In One Chart joined discussion · Sep 27, 2023 17:37

Over the past three decades spanning from 1990 to 2022, the average return for $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ in September has been -0.9%, which is the worst among all other months. This year, as in line with historical trends, the S&P 500 wiped out its gain of over 5% for the year during September.

We are approaching a seasonal pivot point in the stock market. Based on historical price patterns, stocks are likely to chug ahead in the fourth quarter, with the average returns for October and November being 1.45% and 1.75%, respectively.

While these averages or trends may provide some indication of what to expect, they are by no means certain. The pessimists point to several factors that could negatively impact the market in October: the UAW strike, possible government shutdown and resuming interest payments on student loans. Moreover, there is still a possibility of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as concerns about unforeseen inflation resulting from the recent surge in energy prices.

Here are the historical trends of how the stock market performs in October.