<Focus News Summary 9/30-10/4> USA economy too strong!! What are the employment statistics results like?

・Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for September: Estimated at 46.3, the result46.6(Previous value 46.1)

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in September: Expected 47.0 Result47.3(Previous value 47.0)

ISM Manufacturing Business Conditions Index in September: Expected 47.5 Result47.2(Previous value 47.2)

August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Job Openings: Expected 7.655 million results 8.04 million job openings(Previous value 7.673 million units)

・September ADP Employment Statistics (month-on-month): Financial estimates 0.12 million people Result0.143 million people(Previous value 0.099 million people)

・New initial jobless claims for the previous week: Financial estimates 0.22 million cases Result0.225 million cases(Previous value 0.218 million cases)

・September Service Sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised value): Financial estimates 55.4 Result55.2(Previous value 55.4)

・September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, revised value): Financial estimates 54.3 result 54.0(Previous value 54.4)

・September ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Conditions Index (Overall): Financial estimates 51.7 result 54.9(Previous value 51.5)

・September non-farm sector employment change (month-on-month): expected 0.14 million people. Result 0.254 million people(Previous value 0.142 million people)

・September unemployment rate: expected 4.2%. Result 4.1％(Previous value 4.2%)

・September average hourly wage (year-on-year): expected 3.8%. Result4.0％(Previous value 3.8%)

"Not ruling out an additional interest rate cut of 0.50% if the labor market weakens"

"Concerned about the possibility of continued port closures" "The Fed is cutting interest rates because the economy is normalizing."

"Many interest rate cuts are expected" "The inflation rate is approaching the target."

Policies are shifting towards a neutral stance over time. The labor market has stabilized over the past year, but remains robust. The economy is facing a situation where disinflation is progressing further.

To achieve a 2% inflation rate, further cooling in the labor market is not necessary. The downside risk of GDP was a revision of GDI, which has been upwardly revised.

The rate cut in September reflected confidence in achieving low inflation due to a strong labor market. Inflation risks and employment targets are almost balanced.

The level of debt in the United States is a long-term concern. If the economy progresses as expected, two more 0.25% rate cuts this year are seen as a rational path.

Unemployment and inflation rates are expected to stabilize in the second half of this year.

With the rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), labor and demand are expected to tighten again, leading to a possibility of inflation exceeding 2% next year.

The current interest rate cut is an appropriate policy readjustment, but reaching a 2% inflation rate is necessary for complete normalization.

A strike by dock workers is expected, and retailers are stocking up. Retailers are holding about 2 weeks of excess inventory, and the impact is likely to continue afterward.

A strike by dock workers will affect the supply chain and could lead to price increases. Inflation is mostly contained.

The employment statistics are unbeatable, and the conclusion of the dock strike is another very good news.

If such employment reports continue to increase, it will increase confidence in achieving full employment.

On Wednesday, JP Morgan Chase & Company reiterated its confidence in Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) by maintaining an overweight rating and a target price of $155 per share. The company's optimistic outlook is based on progress with Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell GPU platform, which is expected to be shipped in large quantities in the fourth quarter.

The strong results of the September employment statistics in the USA suggest a potential slowdown in the pace of rate cuts. However, Zack Pandol, the Chief Research Officer at Grayscale, stated to CoinTelegraph that investors are becoming more interested in higher-risk assets, which is why Bitcoin (BTC) remains bullish.

Yield on the 10-year bond in the NY bond market rose today. The unexpectedly strong September US employment statistics announced on this day have reduced expectations for a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve (FRB). The probability of a significant rate cut at the November FOMC meeting in the short-term financial market has almost disappeared. It seems that the market is certain about a standard rate cut of 0.25 percentage points. Furthermore, indicating the resilience of the economy and the increasing expectation of a soft landing has pushed yields up.