Fed Rate Prediction - Cut or No Cuts
My guess is Brother Powell will announce September Fed rates cut by 0.25%.
My sentiments is further supported by the Nonfarm results. 👇 👇 👇
ChatGPT says: The data showing a lower-than-expected ADP Nonfarm Employment Change could indeed support the argument for the Federal Reserve (FED) to lower interest rates in September. Here are some key points to consider:
1. **Weaker Job Growth:**
- The actual job growth for July (122K) is significantly below the consensus (147K) and previous (150K) figures, indicating a slowdown in employment gains.
2. **Economic Implications:**
- Slower job growth can be a sign of a cooling economy, which might prompt the FED to consider lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity.
3. **Inflation Considerations:**
- If job growth is slowing, it could reduce upward pressure on wages and, consequently, inflation. Lower inflationary pressure might give the FED more room to cut rates without risking an inflation spike.
4. **Market Expectations:**
- Market participants often interpret weaker employment data as a signal that the FED might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance to support economic growth.
5. **Broader Economic Context:**
- While the ADP report is influential, the FED will consider a broader range of economic indicators, including other labor market data (such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report), inflation figures, GDP growth, and global economic conditions.
In summary, the weaker ADP employment data for July adds to the case for the FED to potentially lower interest rates in September, especially if other economic indicators also point towards a slowdown. However, the final decision will depend on a comprehensive assessment of all relevant economic data leading up to the FED's September meeting.
1. **Weaker Job Growth:**
- The actual job growth for July (122K) is significantly below the consensus (147K) and previous (150K) figures, indicating a slowdown in employment gains.
2. **Economic Implications:**
- Slower job growth can be a sign of a cooling economy, which might prompt the FED to consider lowering interest rates to stimulate economic activity.
3. **Inflation Considerations:**
- If job growth is slowing, it could reduce upward pressure on wages and, consequently, inflation. Lower inflationary pressure might give the FED more room to cut rates without risking an inflation spike.
4. **Market Expectations:**
- Market participants often interpret weaker employment data as a signal that the FED might adopt a more accommodative monetary policy stance to support economic growth.
5. **Broader Economic Context:**
- While the ADP report is influential, the FED will consider a broader range of economic indicators, including other labor market data (such as the Nonfarm Payrolls report), inflation figures, GDP growth, and global economic conditions.
In summary, the weaker ADP employment data for July adds to the case for the FED to potentially lower interest rates in September, especially if other economic indicators also point towards a slowdown. However, the final decision will depend on a comprehensive assessment of all relevant economic data leading up to the FED's September meeting.
As my sentiments are bullish its also reflected in my trades and positions as well. ![]()
All the Best to everyone!!!
While Brother Powell Talks Stocks keeps going…
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Guardian87 : impossible to cut off rate, if does only weaken USD
Bob Ray Guardian87 : yes, but they don't want the consumer to weaken
toomanyscammers : pow wow pow-er pew pew pew
Ultratech : i never figured they'd cut before election but September maybe close enough